Well, Bellator has made another interesting free-agent signing. This one even took ME by surprise.
Contrary to popular belief, I am not usually informed of upper-management decisions at Bellator unless I am called upon to say something about it in public (interview the fighter, shoot a video etc.). As a result I had no clue that he was signed until read about it online.
Free-agency has been a HUGE story in 2016. Phil Davis made the jump to Bellator, followed by Ben Henderson, then Rory MacDonald, and now Chael Sonnen. In terms of star-power, he has to be the biggest acquisition since Tito Ortiz and has the potential to draw a ton of eyeballs to the Bellator brand.
Free-agency is a great way to draw instant attention to a particular promotion or team, but a lot of strategic thought goes with it. Snagging a coveted free-agent in any sport can be a game changer, but one has to keep their eye on the overall prize: making the team, or promotion in this case, a more competitive unit. In this regard the Bellator signings over the past year fit well into an overall brand-building strategy. The key to that strategy is that all of the free-agent fighters fall into competitive divisions where there are options for instantly relevant fights.
Phil Davis dropped right into the mix at 205 and won a Bellator 4-man tournament in his promotional debut. He defeated King Mo and has a title fight lined up with the undefeated champ Liam McGeary. No need for any softballs or tune-ups: Davis made a huge impact in a competitive division.
Ben Henderson, Rory MacDonald, and Chael Sonnen all have expressed interest in fighting in multiple weight classes. Henderson dove right into the deep end of the pool and took on 170 kingpin Andrey Koreshkov. I admire his confidence and willingness to bang, but his reach in that case clearly exceeded his grasp and he took a one-sided beating in his Bellator debut. The upside to having aspirations in more than one division is that a loss in a move up can be forgiven fairly easily. Case in point: after a bizarre finish to his match with Pitbull, Henderson will now face Michael Chandler for his 155 strap in November. Its been a rocky road, but fans will get the matchup they wanted when both fighters held belts in rival organizations a couple years back.
Chael Sonnen has the same which-way-will-the-knight-move kind of ability (yeah I play chess, go ahead make fun of me). He has had most of his success at 185, but has competed at light-heavy (most recently against Rashad Evans and Shogun Rua) and seems willing to make a fight at 265 for the right dollar amount. While he made reference in his Bellator TV debut to a "legends" ass-kicking tour the simple fact is that there are very few legends actively fighting in Bellator, and even fewer who would make a compelling fight for the American Gangster. Kimbo is gone, Ken Shamrock (provided he ever fights again after 2 terrible showings) would be a like throwing a steak to a wolf, Royce Gracie would be another terrible matchup, and I have heard nothing about the return of Stephan Bonnar. Wanderlei Silva (a name with a lot of history when it comes to Chael) is still serving a suspension and is scheduled to fight overseas before he makes any moves inside the Bellator cage.
The only real "legends" fight that makes any sense is Tito Ortiz. The buildup alone to a fight between two of the biggest trash-talkers in the sport would draw plenty of people in and get unprecedented mainstream coverage (please GOD no more dudes in masks in the cage, I still have nightmares about that night). It's also a fairly easy sell: Tito looked good in his last fight against Liam McGeary. He was lean and looked like he had gotten through camp injury-free. I actually had him ahead until the champ locked in the reverse triangle. If he can do another 6-8 weeks camp (no small task considering his age and history) he could give the fans one last solid performance against Chael.
Lets, for arguments sake, say that Chael's first fight is against Tito and he comes out on top. THAT'S when the real difficulties begin. Although he has been at his best at 185, he hasn't cut to middleweight in 4 years. Cutting weight gets exponentially more difficult as you get older, and dropping to 185 at 39 years old and with 3 years off is no easy task. Although he has expressed an interest in dropping to middleweight again, the physical reality of getting there might be a bit a challenge. Furthermore, there isn't a ton motivation for Chael to make a challenging cut in the first place as the big name fights are currently at 205. Middleweight is an entertaining division is Bellator, but lacks a name with mainstream star power. Rory MacDonald would be an interesting addition to the division and could make a compelling fight against Chael, but I think he will want to test out the waters at welter before making a leap in weight-class.
Assuming he stays at 205, his showdown with Tito Ortiz (a fight with its own set of challenges) is about as easy as the road gets for Chael. Waiting in the wings would be King Mo, Linton Vassel, Phil Davis, and Liam McGeary: ALL of them tough challenges who would love to put a victory over the American Gangster on their resume. If his (hypothetical) performance against Tito were sufficiently impressive, it would be hard to keep him out of a title shot against the winner of McGeary/Davis, two BIG light-heavyweights who Sonnen acknowledges as great fighters.
When it comes to Chael there is a MASSIVE elephant in the room and it involves the label that is the most tenacious in the world of MMA: doper. Everyone knows about the positive tests that led to Sonnen's suspension in 2011 and his retirement in 2014. He can make light of it as much as he likes, but its an issue that Bellator has clearly taken seriously. His contract contains a clause that if he fails a USADA test he forfeits his entire purse, plus a 500,000$ fine. There are few MMA fighter on Earth who could afford a half-million dollar fine. This is a "bankruptcy-level" fine designed to let Sonnen know that he has no wiggle-room when it comes to PEDs. Of course he knows it was in the deal he signed and he manned up, knowing he's got to be clean the rest of his foreseeable career. The problem is that its a tough label to shake. If Chael looks any smaller, or slower, or hell, ANYTHING is different on the scale or in the cage the fans will immediately grumble that the best parts of the American Gangster came out of a syringe. Chael may claim not give a wet fart what the fans think, but the urge to compete generally comes with an urge to leave a legacy you can be proud of and the strictness of the Bellator contract will allow the MMA fans to find out what Chael P. Sonnen is really made of.
On the technical side (the side I'm most interested in), Sonnen is an interesting case to say the least. He has beaten some of the best in the world over the length of his career and has wins over the current UFC champ Michael Bisping, Nate Marquardt, Shogun Rua, and my commentating colleague Brian Stann. On the down side is a history of mental lapses in fights, especially on the ground, many in fights he was clearly winning.
Most current MMA fans remember his performances against Anderson Silva. I must have watched their first fight half a dozen times. MAN he had that fight in the BAG!! When he gave up the fight-ending triangle with 2 minutes left in the fight, he was so far ahead that Silva could have LITERALLY won the round 10-6 and Sonnen would have won majority decision. In the rematch, another he was ahead in, Sonnen's undoing was an ill-advised spinning backfist attempt after he had CRUSHED Silva with his ground and pound for 5 solid minutes.
What the younger fans might not remember are his fights with Jeremy Horn, Renato Sobral, and his first fight with Paulo Filho. In each fight he was on top working his ground and pound and fell by submission. The Sobral fight was about even, he was ahead against Horn, and he was DESTROYING Filho when the end came. Its important to keep in mind that all of these guys had incredible submission games, but it shows that the result of the Anderson Silva fights fit into a troubling overall pattern of technical lapses in competitive, and in some cases dominant, fights. Two of the biggest wins of his career, against Rua and Bisping, have come AFTER this string of late blunders, so hopefully he has addressed that area of his game and made the necessary corrections.
Sonnet's mouth may be front page news to the rest of the MMA world, but I'm intrigued to see what he can do with his fists in the new chair of his career.
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