Monday, February 21, 2011

The BJ Penn effect

Its often said that history is simply the lie that is repeated the most times. When I was studying for my undergraduate degree in history at UCLA I ran into this phenomenon a lot. People who fancy themselves as pseudo-historians will rattle on about their supposed knowledge of history without the slightest idea of what they are talking about. Hearing for the millionth time about how FDR allowed the attack on Pearl Harbor, or seeing afro-centric posters featuring a black Cleopatra (she wasn't african actually, her father was Macedonian) gets a little old after awhile.

This effect occurs quite a bit in the realm of MMA as well.

One of the most enduring myths in MMA concerns the guard of BJ Penn. Every time he is on his back is a fight, Joe Rogan just about loses his mind. He seems to want to create new adjectives to describe the wonder that we are seeing before us. When Sean Sherk was watching his destruction of Joe Stevenson and was asked what worried him the most about facing BJ, the first thing he talked about was his flexibility in the guard. In a recent article article on Sherdog by Jason Probst about the upcoming Penn vs Fitch fight, he wrote that "Penn's takedown defense and wily bottom game make taking him to the ground a difficult proposition and surviving there an especially risky one."

Sure the guy can comb his hair with his feet, and that kind of flexibility is always fun to watch, but there is a very simple fact that I would like to share with anyone that is interested. You guys ready?

BJ PENN HAS NEVER SUBMITTED AN OPPONENT FROM HIS BACK IN AN MMA FIGHT!!!

That's right, not ONCE in 24 professional fights has BJ Penn caught an opponent from his guard. Im not knocking the guys BJJ skills in ANY way, I think the dude in a serious freak on the ground, but its his top-game and back control that are so impressive. Once BJ gets on top of you, you are in deep shit, no two ways about it.

The guys that have been successful against BJ were actually the guys who could take him down and keep him on his back. After getting tattooed in the opening round of their first fight, GSP got smart and started taking BJ down and won a unanimous decision. He followed the same game plan, minus the first round beating, in their rematch and had an easy fight. Lightweights Frankie Edgar and Jens Pulver both beat BJ on the strength of their wrestling and conditioning.

I think the myth of BJ's guard has actually won him a lot of fights. I was AMAZED at how little effort guys like Sean Sherk and Joe Stevenson (both known for their wrestling skills) put into trying to take BJ to the ground. They seemed to want to bang with BJ and use their wrestling to stay on the feet; where they were clearly out-classed. Which brings me to rarely acknowledged fact #2:

BJ PENN HAS MORE KNOCKOUTS THAN SUBMISSIONS!!

Thats right kids, stunner #2 is that he has 7 kos and 6 subs, and while he does get plenty of credit for his boxing skills, his striking isn't treated with the same kind of awe as his submission game. Fighters seem to want to avoid the ground at all costs, when they should be doing just the opposite.

Those are the big reasons why I'm not particularly interested in Penn's upcoming fight against Jon Fitch. Jon Fitch does what Jon Fitch does; he pressures you on the feet, takes you down, and grinds on you until you wish you had been a pro volleyball player. If Fitch isn't blinded by the hype, is cautious on the feet (and who ever accused Fitch of not being cautious enough?) and sticks to what he does, I dont see him having a ton of trouble sending BJ back down to the lightweight division for good.

Last fact of the day:

BJ PENN HAS NEVER BEATEN A WELTERWEIGHT IN THE UFC WHO WASN'T NAMED MATT HUGHES

Will that change on the 27th? We'll have to see, but if you want to examine something fairly, it's always important to look past the hype...

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Long live the Emperor...

Last night's Strikeforce show was hard to watch. Its never easy to see a great fighter at the end of his career, but to watch Fedor take a savage beating at the hands of a GIGANTIC and motivated heavyweight was a sight I hoped I would never see.

I worked for M-1 for 2 years and got to spend a lot of time around Fedor and know him about as well as someone can who doesn't speak any Russian. In my experience he is a quiet, gentle, humble, and spiritual guy who was never too busy to say hi to me or anyone else. He couldn't care less about the trappings of success or the fame that being an international figure has brought him. He trains in the same town he grew up in, surrounded by the same family members and coaches he has had since the beginning of his career. Its a shame to see someone as humble and likable as Fedor at the end of his professional road.

He looked off from the start of the Bigfoot fight. Fedor has never been a big heavyweight, he stands at 6 feet tall and weighs around 230lbs. He has been successful in the past against bigger, stronger fighters in part because of his ability to commit 1000% to his punches.

I was ringside when he demolished the much bigger Tim Sylvia. Fedor put everything he had behind every punch and Sylvia looked like he got hit by a train. That kind of commitment requires a rare combination of confidence and timing, both of which were lacking in his last fight. As soon as they began exchanging, Fedor looked tentative. A lot of Fedor's head movement came from his tendency to lean into his punches. Because he wasn't committing, Fedor caught a lot of counter punches from Bigfoot and missed a ton of shots in the opening round. He also seemed a little unsure of himself after he wasn't able to seriously hurt Bigfoot with his punches.

Once Bigfoot was on his back, Fedor hesitated to act. I thought it was strange that the commentators were advising Fedor to stay off the ground with Bigfoot. Fedor has always had one of the most dangerous ground and pound attacks in the sport. Does anyone else remember him DIVING into the guard of Nogueira, landing bombs left and right? It could certainly be due to his last fight against Verdum, but Fedor seemed hesitant to commit to his formidable GnP attack against Bigfoot. Yes, Bigfoot is a BJJ black belt, but only 2 of his 15 wins had come via submission and getting on top of an opponent is the easiest way to negate their size and reach advantage, yet Fedor hesitated and was seemingly unsure of himself and his strategy.

Fedor hasn't had consistent fights since his days as the king of Pride. From 2002 (the year he joined the promotion) to his last fight for Pride in 2006 he had a total of 17 fights. Since then he has averaged less than 2 per year for various promotions. For all the expense and hype put into Strikeforce's acquisition of Fedor, he has only fought for them 3 times with a 1-2 record. The layoffs and renegotiations have clearly hurt Fedor's performance in the ring and his mystique has all but vanished.

Its a strange phenomenon in sports. An athlete seems to be operating on another level, untouchable, invincible, a spectacle that seems to make his peers look as though they are in slow-motion. Then a few cracks appear, and suddenly it all vanishes into thin air. Athletes often change teams, trainers, coaches, but nothing really seems to help, the magic is gone. It was enlightening for me to watch BJ Penn's corner in his 2nd loss to Frankie Edgar. They were bewildered, their guy had never required actual coaching before. BJ had always gone in and done his thing and won, but now that wasn't happening and they didn't know what to do. It reminded me a little of Aaron Snowell holding a rubber glove to the face of Mike Tyson during his loss to Buster Douglas while repeating "you have to go after him" over and over. Great athletes seem to be on automatic and those around them are merely watching the show.

Will Fedor join the ranks of athletes like Roy Jones Jr, Chuck Liddell, and Joe Namath? Or will he make adjustments and see a few years of success before the final curtain? The question can only be answered by Fedor himself. Given his ambivalence toward the entire notion of being a wealthy and famous athlete, he might not be motivated to drop down to light-heavyweight and make another go at it. I don't think he can be successful in the Strikeforce heavyweight division that is arguably the deepest of any MMA promotion. Even if he goes down to LHW and clears out the division in Stikeforce, I don't think it will be enough to make him #1 in the eyes of most pundits, and who knows if that's even a factor to Fedor.

The next few weeks are going to decide Fedor's future in the world of MMA. I think that regardless of what happens, Fedor should be recognized as the greatest heavyweight in MMA's young history...