Few fighters are as closely associated with Bellator as Michael Chandler. He has held the Lightweight Championship twice and has been the poster-boy of the promotion since his dramatic upset of Eddie Alvarez at Bellator 58 in 2011. As dominant has Chandler has looked in his past 4 fights since his 3-fight skid, there was some raising of the eyebrows when it was announced that he would be fighting Brent Primus on the most important card in Bellator history at the historic Madison Square Garden.
The reason is that Brent Primus has only had 7 professional fights and has won his last two by close, even controversial, decisions. One thing that Michael Chandler keeps pointing out when people question Primus and his challenger credentials is the fact that he was in a similar position when he upset Eddie Alvarez in 2011. It's that kind of drama that makes this fight compelling: Primus will have to repeat history in order to win.
Chandler is a tough mix of mental and physical talents. He started out as a powerful wrestler with rudimentary striking and has developed into an explosive KO machine. His right hand is absolute murder and he truly believes that he will DOMINATE any opponent he faces. In the 7 fights he has won since winning the title in 2011 he has looked absolutely unstoppable. Only Benson Henderson has gotten past the 2nd round with Chandler and most opponents find they can't deal with the champ's speed or intensity in the opening stanza. When most fighters are warming up and finding their rhythm, Chandler is already looking for the highlight-reel KO.
Primus has gotten this title fight based mostly on his submission game. His first 4 fights (2 of which were in Bellator) ended in first-round submission victories and he has only one KO to his credit. He has excellent pressure combined with slick transitions that make him a serious threat if he is able to get in good position against Chandler. He is also a GIANT for a lightweight and towered over Chandler when they faced off in Chicago. I've spoken with Chael Sonnen, who trains with Primus, and he claims that Primus is even stronger than he looks. He and his team are hoping that size provides something of an equalizer against the "wrestler strength" of Chandler.
When tactically breaking this fight down one thing is immediately apparent: the similarities between Primus' fight against Chandler and Chandler's fight against Alvarez stop at the records. Other than the fact that Primus is a relatively inexperienced underdog, he has few similarities to the young Chandler and he CANNOT fight the way Chandler did against Alvarez and expect to win. In order to understand why, we have to revisit the upset of 2011.
The major reason Michael Chandler defeated Eddie Alvarez was the fact that he came out in the first round and, literally as well as figuratively, punched Eddie in the mouth. In his previous fights Chandler had shown great wrestling, solid submissions, and basic striking. The last thing Alvarez expected was Chandler to come out throwing heat in the first round. Throughout his impressive career, Alvarez has been plagued by two tendencies: he can start slowly, and he tends to get rocked early in almost every fight. Chandler took advantage of both of these habits in their first fight and had Eddie on his heels right from the get-go. It took Eddie a couple of rounds to adjust to the new-and-improved Michael Chandler and by the time he did a LOT of damage had been done. Eddie rocked Chandler more than once in that fight, but eventually succumbed via RNC in the 4th round. It remains the latest stoppage in Chandlers career (a VERY telling statistic) and put Chandler on the MMA map.
Most sports upsets begin with the underdog starting strong and letting the other team know they aren't going to play scared: that's exactly what Chandler did in his upset of Eddie Alvarez.
Primus, however, follows this blueprint at great peril. Unlike 2011 Eddie Alvarez, Chandler is a PHENOMENALLY fast starter. Of Chandler's 13 finishes, 9 have come in the first round and only his submission of Eddie came past round two. The dude comes out of his corner like he was shot out of a cannon. As much as Primus would love to make a powerful statement in round one by taking it to the champ "2011 Chandler" style, that would probably be the worst tactical mistake he could make. Guys with a LOT more striking experience than Primus have found themselves staring at a referee's waving arms in the first round because they decided to fight fire with fire. Chandler would like nothing more than an early shoot-out and highlight KO.
The tactical weakness that fighters HAVE been able to exploit is the fact that the champ tends to burn a ton of gas looking for the KO in round one. Of Chandlers three losses two have been by decision, the lone KO coming in a rather bizarre fashion when Chandler LITERALLY seemed to go blind. In both decision losses Chandler started strong, but faded in the later rounds against experienced fighters who were able to stay mentally focused despite the physical demands of the opening rounds. Benson Henderson, a fighter known for his endless gas-tank, was almost able to pull out a win with a dominant fifth round, despite getting white-washed in the previous four rounds.
Chandler defeated Eddie Alvarez by fighting like a young gun. He used his physical talents, combined with a newfound confidence in his striking skills, to put the champ right in the middle of a fight he didn't expect. If Primus is to pull of the upset, he needs to fight like the veterans who have given Chandler trouble. The trouble is that Primus' greatest strength lies in his BJJ skills and those can be tough to use against a superior wrestler. In their wins over Chandler, both Eddie Alvarez and Will Brooks were able to stop Chandler's takedown enough to get their own striking games going. The trick for Primus is going to be getting a dominant position on Chandler while NOT falling for the deadly fists of the champion.
The good news is that Primus does tend to finish strong. In his last fight against Gleristone Santos, Primus overcame a slow start to dominate the third round and earn a close split decision. He needs a gritty performance like that to upset the champ. A big sign in this fight will be if Primus can walk back to his corner at the end of round three with one in the bag, if he does, he can feel pretty good about his chances heading into the championship rounds.
One X-factor is that Primus has been anything but consistent with is activity-level. His 7-fight career extends back to 2010 and he has only had more than one fight in a calendar year ONCE (2 in 2013). His last fight will be 14 months old by the time he squares off with Chandler for the biggest fight of his career. One upside for the challenger in the old tournament system was that they came in on a streak. Michael Chandler had won three fights in 2011, while Eddie had only one. The good news for Primus is that he hasn't exactly been sitting on the couch eating Cheetos for the past year. This time in the gym since his last fight might have given him a new set of tools that Chandler hasn't yet seen. Surprise might be the key in this fight against Chandler.
Here's some boxing trivia (no google now, or asking Steve Farhood, seriously that guy knows EVERYTHING about boxing): Who were Ali's previous two opponents before upsetting Sonny Liston for the heavyweight title? Give up? They were Sir Henry Cooper and Doug Jones. The reason I bring that up is because most people forget that heading into his showdown with Liston, Ali hadn't looked great in his last couple bouts. I, and a lot of people at the time, thought Jones beat him and Copper floored him with a left hook and roughed him up on the inside before succumbing to a cut in the fifth round. Neither of these guys were considered to be on the same PLANET as the unstoppable Sonny Liston. Ali, or Cassius Clay at the time, was primed to "shock the world" because people thought about what he HAD done more than what he COULD do.
If Primus can do the same, he can leap on the top of the cage and declare: "I told you, and I told you, and I told you..."
