Phil Davis vs Liam McGeary
Mohegan Sun 11-04, Light-Heavyweight Belt on the line.
Well, this one has been a long time coming. Phil jumped right into Bellator and was faced with a one-night four-man tournament for the right to face Liam for his 205 belt. Davis looked great that night and easily dispatched Emmanuel Newton and Francis Carmont on his way to the tournament title. It wasn't just the opponents and the dominance, it was the versatility as well. He submitted the former champ who had shown great submission defense against McGeary, then he got his first KO since 2009.
The fact that King Mo was supposed to meet Davis in the finals led to them having a showdown in San Jose the following spring. Davis dominated the third round in a very close fight to earn his title shot. When it comes to 205 in Bellator, its clear that Davis is the #1 contender and the "UFC free agent vs established Bellator champ" match that so many have wondered about will finally happen.
Liam McGeary has been nothing less than a British wrecking-ball in Bellator. He has gone 8-0 in our cage and 11-0 overall with 10 finishes. Another impressive stat is that he has 5 wins via sub, and 5 by KO. The guy has shown that he can win anywhere and in impressive fashion. Not only does he have impressive submission skills, but his build allows him to strike from just about anywhere. He has TWO inverted triangle submissions: one against Kelly Anundson and another against Tito Ortiz.
The key to this fight has been Liam's tendency in recent fights to accept takedowns in order to work from his back. In the Tito Ortiz and Kelly Anundson fights he was taken down with no difficulty at all but was able to capitalize early with quick submissions. Against Emmanuel Newton his tendency to rely on his submission skills nearly cost him as he was unable to submit Newton and the judges awarded him a win that could have gone either way.
In interviews leading up to this fight Liam has expressed unwavering confidence in his BJJ game. He has also framed the contest as a "BJJ vs Wrestling" type of fight. The first problem with that analysis is that Phil has exceptional BJJ skills in his own right. I know from painful experience (Click here to see Rolling With Jimmy) that Phil is excellent at putting pressure on his opponents and has a fantastic kimura. Phil was able to finish Emmanuel Newton in the first round, an opponent Liam couldn't catch in 25 minutes.
The second problem is that the judging criteria in MMA is a bit uncertain when it comes to an aggressive guard vs moderate ground and pound. Many of the rounds in Liam's fight vs Newton could have gone either way, depending on whether you preferred the GnP of Newton or the submission attacks of McGeary. The last thing Liam wants is to let his title slip away because judges generally go for the fighter on top.
Against King Mo, Phil Davis was content to test his boxing out for the first 2 rounds and only went to his takedown when he had Mo hurt in the 3rd stanza. The reason for that is simple: Mo is one hell of a wrestler. Davis wasn't about to lose all of his precious energy fighting for a difficult takedown when he had confidence in his striking skills. Thats not a concern he faces against Liam. Liam has yet too see a takedown in Bellator that he didn't readily accept, and Phil has a HEALTHY respect for Liam's KO power. That combination should result in some early takedown attempts by Phil (I'd be surprised if it took more than a minute for the first one).
Both fighters have to keep the pressure on in their respective comfort zones. Phil Davis has never been finished in his pro career, so Liam has to be ready for 5 hard rounds of throwing volume on the feet and chaining submissions together on the ground. Phil has to respect the finishing ability of a guy who has only seen the final bell once in 11 fights, so staying in Liam's chest and working for takedown after takedown will probably be the order of the day.
Scrambling positions with be VERY interesting considering Liam's build and Davis' speed. The guy who makes a mistake getting into or out of a position might find themselves in deep trouble. If the straight "sprawl and brawl" strategy doesn't fit Liam (which it hasn't so far), he might roll for something crazy as Phil latches onto a takedown, so Phil has to be aware at all times.
Ring rust might also be a serious issue for the champ. It has been just over a year since Liam tapped out Tito in his first title defense. A knee issue has kept Liam sidelined while Phil has fought 3 times. Liam can't afford a slow start to ease his way back into competition and Phil probably wouldn't allow one anyway. Liam's timing has to be sharp from the opening against an aggressive and confident Phil Davis.
Love to know what the fans think. I'm looking forward to one hell of a fight.
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