Monday, February 20, 2012

The art of begging

I might be dating myself with this one but does anyone remember Royler Gracie vs Sakuraba? It was an incredibly significant fight at the time. Royler was the technician of the undefeated Gracie family and Sakuraba was the Japanese icon of Pride. One image that really told the story of that fight was the one of Royler scooting on his butt, literally ASKING Sakuraba to come down to the mat and grapple with him. Sakuraba ummmm... "forcefully declined" by kicking Royler's legs until they were bright red.

I was reminded of that fight when I saw Nick Diaz lose to Carlos Condit in their welterweight showdown. Diaz seemed to want to trash-talk Condit into a brawl, where he could use his volume-punching attack to score a TKO. Condit, under direction from his coach Greg Jackson, refused to have any part of it. He kicked and moved, frustrating Diaz and winning a unanimous decision.

The reason it reminded me of the Gracie fight is because both guys seemed at the mercy of their opponents' reluctance to fight THEIR kind of fight, and their inability to make their opponent fight in their realm highlighted certain technical deficiencies in their respective games. Royler had few other tools outside of his BJJ, and Diaz doesn't have great footwork. Diaz had always used his superior height and range to corral opponents. In the style of George Foreman he would use his arms, rather than his feet to keep opponents in the corner and unload. Against the rangy 6'1" Condit, Diaz would have no such advantage. Diaz followed Condit around the cage taking leg kicks and seemed unable to cut off the cage with his feet.

The attitude of Diaz after the fight was to be expected, not because it was fair, but because Diaz is Diaz. Complaining that your opponent didn't fight the way you wanted him to is absurd, you have to MAKE him fight the away you want him to, and he clearly couldn't do it.

One thing you can never count on is a Greg Jackson trained fighter caring about anything but winning. Does anyone remember Emmanuel Steward slapping the chest of Lennox Lewis in-between rounds during his fight with Mike Tyson and SCREAMING at him to quit throwing jabs and finish the fucking fight? That was his ANTI-Greg Jackson impression. That dude doesn't care how far ahead you are or what round it is, hell, even if the crowd is launching water bottles into the ring. His philosophy is that if you are ahead, then keep doing what you are doing. If you want exciting finishes, then play the video-game.

Breaking down Jackson's fight strategy is fairly simple: do whatever is easiest based on your opponent's weaknesses and your strengths. GSP lost a lot of fans with his performance against Dan Hardy. Most people thought the Brit was tough, but not exactly deserving of a title shot after 4 solid performances against less-than-top-10 talent. GSP dominated that fight from bell to bell, but the fact that there WAS a bell at the end was somewhat disappointing. He came close to finishing a few times, but wasn't willing to possibly give up his solid positioning for a finish.

Jackson never slapped GSP in the chest like Emmanuel Steward, he never raised his voice, he didn't even politely suggest that he perhaps do his career, and the viewing public, a little favor by finishing a fighter who was clearly technically outmatched. He doesn't think that way as a coach. MMA pundits often refer to him as Yoda, but if Yoda had trained Luke like Greg Jackson, that showdown with Vader would have taken 40 minutes. Im not knocking the guy as a coach, I think he's one of the best, but the idea that Diaz could "dare" one of his students into brawl is ridiculous, you're more likely to dare a rattlesnake into a blender.

So the showdown will, more than likely, be Condit vs GSP. Ironically, the difference between two Jackson-trained fighters may come down to who takes the risk at the right time.

The welterweight division is shaping up nicely in the UFC and some young, hungry talent is asserting itself. I don't actually hold out much hope for an exciting fight between Carlos Condit and GSP. Unless the time off and injuries have really slowed him down, GSP is simply too technical for Condit and his wrestling is the best in the game. Condit has KO power, but I don't see GSP trading on the feet much. It might actually benefit Condit to do the same thing he did against Diaz and run-and-gun his way to a decision.

GSP is not a fighter, he's a mixed martial artist. He is technically gifted and almost never puts himself in harms way. He is the living embodiment of Jackson's "just win" philosophy. The problem is that he tends to shut down under duress. In the 3rd round of his fight with Jake Shields he scratched his eye and simply stopped fighting. He knew he had 3 in the bag and decided to coast, and this was after he stayed on the feet for 3 rounds against a guy who couldn't break a potato-chip with a punch and failed to KO him.

The guy who beats GSP is the guy who can make a brawl out of it and has the KO power to remind him of his loss to Matt Serra. Diaz has the right mentality, but lacks the takedown defense and one-punch power. Condit may also fall victim to GSP's stellar MMA wrestling.

Of the crop that is out there now, I think Jake Ellenberger and Johny Hendricks might have the most favorable combination of skills. They are both compact, solid wrestlers (Hendricks being world-class) with heavy hands. They might be able to keep it on the feet long enough to remind GSP how much he hates getting hit. Unfortunately, the fights to see who gets to face GSP are often more entertaining than the championship fights themselves.