Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Fix(in) Bellator

I had someone tweet me after the “fix” talk started post Tito/Sonnen that I should say something to silence the critics. I immediately wrote back that I doubted my word would mean anything. The great part about conspiracy theories is that they can be expanded or contracted at the discretion of the believer. If I spoke out against a fix, then it could stand to reason I was in on it and my word wouldn't prove anything. 

My tendency is to lay out my personal logic in these instances and see if THAT has any effect on people’s opinions. I am not a naturally trusting person. As a result I require logical arguments when someone is trying to influence my opinion (makes me an anomaly these days). AllI can I can do is explain how I see it, no more and no less.

I’ve written something like this before. It was after the Kimbo/Ken fight when there was another accusation of impropriety. It’s on the MMA Community Forum somewhere if you want to look for it. I explain there the consequences for a promotion that is caught fixing a fight. I won’t go into great detail here other than to say it would be DISASTROUS. Not “our main guy getting his ass kicked” disastrous, rather “the FBI raids your offices and subpoena all of your employees” disastrous. Fixing a fight is a crime (fraud technically), and any promotion that engages in that is risking its promotional future as well as jail time for its guilty executives. 

The nature of MMA makes a fix, from the promotional side, a fairly ludicrous idea. There are few checks on a promotions authority when it comes to matchmaking. A fighter doesn't have to win to get a title fight. Nick Diaz lost to Carlos Condit in an interim title fight. It didn't matter at all, his next fight was GSP for the title. Nate Diaz famously chokes out Conor McGregor in a massive upset. Whats his next fight? A rematch that Conor wins. Will we see a third? Maybe: its all up to Dana and no one else. 

It isn't a UFC phenomenon either. Ken Shamrock gets KO’d in the first round against Kimbo Slice and yet still headlines what is (so far) the biggest show in Bellator history against Royce Gracie in his very next fight. In the Bjorn years Roger Huerta gets a fight against Eddie Alvarez despite not winning a Bellator tournament and coming off a loss to Pat Curran. Fixes would have made all of those fights easier to justify, but they weren't necessary. There is only one promoter and one matchmaker for each promotion. If they want a fight made it doesn't matter what happened before, they do what they want. 

In this particular case it’s almost impossible to find a motivation for Bellator to fix this fight in the manner in which it played out. Tito was retiring, that was a done deal for months. Bellator had actually gotten decent milage out of Tito: 3 fights (including a title fight) and excellent ratings. Chael was a recent and highly touted signing. They got a ton of mainstream press from Chael and the guy is promotional gold. There is virtually NO advantage to fixing a fight on behalf of a fighter who will NEVER fight for you again. Chael was the guy who had (and does have) a future in Bellator. He signed a multi-fight deal with Bellator and having him start off wth a loss was not a good thing for the long-term health of that deal. A fix that involved the retiring guy losing to the guy who can stick around and make money for Bellator makes a LOT more sense.  

“But”, the critics say, “what about the big sendoff for Tito at the end? The screens and the speech, that TV gold moment that producers live for? Isn't that worth a few backstage deals?” 

That’s pretty easy: the sendoff was going to happen either way. The screens were (obviously) pre-programmed and the plan, win or lose, was that Tito would do his final walk up the ramp and that we would have the credits rollout over his exit. The only x-factor was gone over at the production meeting the day day before: how would we handle the exit if Tito lost? The plan was that I would interview Chael who would (please God please) say something gracious about Tito now that the fight was over, then interview Tito so he could give his sendoff to the fans before walking into the video sunset. Would it have been as uplifting? Certainly not. Were there a zillion more variables with a Chael win considering the toxic press conference? Absolutely, but the sendoff would have been as good as we could have managed under the circumstances.  Fixing a fight in order to get a good 5 minutes of TV is akin to robbing a bank because you're behind on your cable bill: the reward doesn't exactly match the risk.  

So bearing in mind the facts that:

  1. a fix is an UNBELIEVABLE risk for Bellator
  2. a fix is completely unnecessary from a matchmaking point of view
  3. a fix engineered by the promotion would have favored the OTHER guy

I think its safe to say that Bellator didn't have anything to do with influencing the outcome of the Tito/Chael fight. 

So the only other option is that the fighters themselves conspired to fix the fight for their own reasons. My immediate response to this is an emphatic: why the hell would they do that?

The consequences for the offending fighters (should they be caught) are similar to the ones faced by a promotion that fixes a fight: they are liable for fraud and might do time in addition to having their legacies ruined. Such an act must have a comparable reward in order to justify it and, just like with Bellator, finding a suitable reward is pretty hard.

The only two reasonable motives a fighter would have to fix a fight would be to:

  1. ensure winning a fight that would be otherwise un-winnable.
  2. a massive payout by betting on oneself if the loser is the heavy favorite. 

Think what you want about the fact that these two guys met in the twilight of their careers, but the truth of the matter is that it was a winnable fight for either guy. The conventional wisdom was that Chael had slightly better technique, but Tito was the bigger and physically stronger fighter who had also been more active recently. The odds favored Chael, but the last line I read was 2/1. Two to one is hardly “retire on a Caribbean island by putting money on yourself” kind of odds.  

Tommy Toe Hold (if i can call a cartoon character an actual person) already tweeted a mock conversation between Chael and Tito about fixing the fight. As funny as it is, it DOES point out the absurdity of these two guys coming together to fix a fight considering the unbridgeable gap between their personalities. 

Part of the reason the “fix” talk seems plausible to some is the attitude portrayed publicly by Chael Sonnen. He has been involved in shady practices including money laundering and failed drug tests. In true “American Gangster” fashion, Chael revels in his misdeeds rather than repenting. He went so far as to say he was “mostly clean” leading to to his fight with Tito and that he was only convicted of the criminal acts they “caught him doing”. Most fight fans would wager that if there WAS a fix in an MMA fight, it would probably involve Chael Sonnen. One thing to know about Chael is that the “Chael P. Sonnen” act drops pretty quickly when you are with the guy outside of the camera’s eye. He jokes about PEDs, but signed a contract that costs him 500k if he gets caught using them. He is loud but not stupid and a fix would destroy any hope he would EVER have of finishing his MMA career in the black. 

Another definite roadblock to a fix would be convincing a guy like Tito Oritz to go along with it. Chael often says the things he says with a wry smile that indicates that even HE doesn't really believe them. To him its all theater: it sells tickets and gets eyeballs on him where they belong. Tito, love or hate him, doesn't feel the way. I started my MMA career at Team Punishment 16 years ago and can say with absolute certainty that he is a genuinely emotional dude. 

When we were filming the “Face-Off” show between him and Stephan Bonnar things almost got out of hand several times. Once during the shoot I was listening to Bonnar berate Tito while they were sitting across from one another at a table with me. I thought I left my phone on vibrate and looked down to see that the table was vibrating. Tito was staring at Bonnar and literally shaking with anger. I could hear his teeth grinding as Bonnar was talking. Bear in mind that the cameras were on Bonnar at the time, this wasn't a posturing moment: Tito was genuinely enraged. There were a few moments like that when Tito had to be calmed down in order for the filming to continue. It made for great TV, but Tito’s never been a “turn my anger off when the cameras aren’t running” type of guy.  

I wonder at what point Chael would have approached Tito about this supposed work? I presume it would have been before he called out the mother of Tito’s kids for giving head for a living. This comment only happened a day before the fight. The idea that Chael would then ALLOW Tito get full-mount on him and assume that their handshake deal to finish the fight by (bad) rear naked choke would still hold up and Tito wouldn’t punch a hole through his face is patently ridiculous. The idea that he would approach him AFTER and not expect Tito to laugh in his face or blast him is equally ridiculous.

So lets go over the nuts and bolts of the fight itself. A lot has been made of the supposed tap by Tito early in the fight. I must admit I missed it when it was live, but re-watching it I understood why: Tito isn't in a submission. Chael is clearly hunting for a d’arce choke and can’t get his arm deep enough to make it work. He cranks down to try to get Tito’s head low enough to get the choke, tries the d’arce, then goes back to the crank when he can’t get it. The moment of this supposed tap is AFTER the d’arce attempt: Tito isn't in a submission at all. Its been pointed out as evidence of a fix that Chael moves as soon as Tito “taps”. The truth is that that’s a transitional position. Chael cant crank forever in that position and the d’arce didn't work. His next submission step is to either try to take Tito’s back or transition to another front choke. He chose the latter and went for a guillotine. We all saw how that worked out. 

As Tommy Toe Hold hilariously pointed out: the idea that Tito and Chael's “super-secret-code” for letting go of a submission is to TAP is insane. That people who follow the sport could think that two MMA veterans couldn't think of a better way to secretly communicate than to do THE ONE THING THAT COULD STOP THE FIGHT boggles my mind. Jesus, Tito’s right arm is UNDER his own body and holding onto Chael’s arm!!  He could have easily tapped Chael in secret if he wanted to, yet he chooses to subtly tap him in the open where everyone can see him?!? You seriously need a tinfoil hat to believe that one. 

The final choke has been derided as well. As I pointed out during the broadcast: it was early in the fight and therefore both guys were dry with full gas tanks. I’ve trained with Tito and have had the unfortunate experience of being under that guy. I’m telling you he is STRONG, I mean REALLY strong. The choke he finished on Chael was probably 20% technique and 80% pure strength. Every BJJ guy has tapped to a choke like that from a bigger guy and felt like a complete idiot. It wasn’t under the chin, but the pressure on the jaw and neck was enough. It wasn’t pretty for sure, but therein lies the dilemma. If the fight was a prearranged work, why finish with a bad submission? 

Assuming you could script it any way you wanted to: why choose a method that would raise so many questions? It wouldn't have been any extra effort for Chael to let Tito’s arm get under his neck and get a better looking choke. He could have even passed out (or pretended to) to add that extra gravitas (I went out on my shield guys) and silence any doubters. Instead he tapped to a half-crank, half-choke and has to work very hard to convince the fans that he has another great fight left in him. 

I think that’s part of the major question that is impossible for the conspiracy believers to answer: why would Chael Sonnen agree to a work that he gets absolutely nothing out of? The simple truth is that not only did he not win, he lost convincingly and quickly. He didn't have a long, difficult fight that might raise his stock in the eyes of the fans: he had exactly the opposite. I find it difficult to believe he would arrange something like that just to do his boy Tito a solid and send him off with a win out of the goodness of his heart. A true work would have involved him at least looking good (if not dominant, because hey, he’s agreeing to lose right?) before succumbing to the pre-arraigned submission.   

The general logic espoused by the fix believers is that (much like the Kimbo/Ken fight) the whole thing “looked suspicious”. By that rational I can think of about 5 other fights involving Chael Sonnen that looked like works and never received a single accusation. People seem to forget that Chael has a long history of dominating a fight, then losing by submission due to a mental lapse. His first fight with Anderson Silva is the most famous example, but he had a similar meltdown against Paulo Filho and slipped up against Jeremy Horn and Babalu Sobral as well. The first fight with Silva was exactly how a work SHOULD go: Chael completely dominates Silva for 4 1/2 rounds then taps out to a submission just when it seemed that victory was inevitable. Remember that Chael tapped remarkably quickly for someone who had just put in 23 brutal minutes, it even looked for a moment like it may have been a controversial stoppage. The result: Chael’s stock goes up for making an MMA god look human, Silva keeps the title and gains fans for a gritty come-from-behind performance (many of whom left after his previous two BIZARRE performances), and finally it sets up a mega-payday rematch that Cheal was more than happy to hype. In short: everyone gained something and got paid, something you can’t find in the Tito/Chael scenario. 

I am in NO way saying Silva/Sonnen 1 (or the equally bizarre rematch) was a work, I’m simply pointing out that the criteria for a work seems to fluctuate wildly. Once people get the idea that there is one, it tends to take on a momentum of its own independent of the available evidence.
As @mattwfights so eloquently tweeted:

“A guy who hadn’t fought in 3 years, who gets caught easily in submissions, got caught easily in a submission. Not shocking"  

I actually read a tweet after Kimbo/Ken that read (I’m paraphrasing from memory):
“For people who don't think Kimbo/Ken was fixed: remember that Ken actually submitted Bas Rutten by rear naked choke!! Let that sink in for a second!!”

I was drinking tea when I read that and laughed so hard that I almost gave myself third degree burns. Yes Twitter guy: Ken Shamrock DID submit Bas Rutten via RNC. I won’t point out that it was virtually the same crappy rear naked he almost got Kimbo in, or that Bas wasn’t exactly a submission specialist. What I WILL point out is that the aforementioned submission happened in 1994!! Thats right: the submission this guy used to justify his fix theory in 2015 was a fight that happened 21 YEARS EARLIER!! What athlete in ANY sport is expected to perform in a similar manner to the way they performed when they were 21 years younger?!?! 

That might be the unspoken reason for these theories that seem to defy logic: the fighters that are involved are past their competitive primes. We remember the fighter that they USED to be and seeing the fighter they are now doesn’t quite match up with the image we have in our heads, therefore something must be fishy. Maybe Tito gets a much better choke ten years ago or maybe Chael slips out of the bad choke if he's a decade younger, and maybe a 1994 Ken Shamrock DOES finish Kimbo Slice before his arms gas out. The truth is that we will never know because they didn't fight ten years ago, they fought in the autumn of their careers where maybe the finishes aren't as clean, or as sharp, or as satisfying.  

Like the great Umberto Eco once wrote:

“The Rosicrucians were everywhere, aided by the fact that they didn’t exist.”

Ideas, good and bad, will go on as long as someone believes in them. In the digital age where every idea can find a thousand megaphones, I don't expect the conspiracy theorists to stop conspiring (ironic when you think about it). All I can do is lay things out the way I see them when I’m stuck in hotel rooms rooms waiting to call a fight for your enjoyment. 

As always, feedback is encouraged.