Joe Warren and Ben Askren both made their championship runs on the strength on their takedown and top control. Warren went 15 minutes in every fight and Askren probably would have done the same if not for an awful stoppage in his first fight. They blew more complete MMA fighters out of the water with their world-class wrestling and now will fight for the championship in their respective divisions.
It's this dominant wrestling that Joe Soto will have to overcome in order to retain his featherweight belt on Sept 2nd. Warren is like a dog with a Frisbee when it comes to his wrestling game in the cage. He goes after it from beginning to end and once he gets it, he never lets it go. He has a seemingly inexhaustible heart, he beat an amazingly talented Patricio Pitbull while sicker than a dog. His submission defense rivals Houdini and he has gas for days. These attributes seem to make up for his lack of offensive weapons, he simply doesn't have the boxing or submission skills to finish an opponent at the level he is competing in.
The X-factor that Warren is going to have to deal with is the fact that his championship run was conspicuously short on top-level wrestlers. As the tournament progressed, he took on more and more well-rounded fighters with dangerous submission games, NONE of those fighters had outstanding wrestling pedigrees. Warren could follow his ground and pound strategy without worrying too much about his takedown getting stuffed.
Joe Soto does have a solid wrestling background. He was a California State Wrestling Champion and wrestled with John "Bones" Jones and Cain Velasquez at Iowa Central Community College. He has used his wrestling with great success both offensively and defensively in his MMA career. Against Wilson Reis, he used his sprawl to keep the fight on the feet, and against Yahir Reyes, he used destructive takedowns and punches to seal a dominant victory.
Now there are many levels of elite wrestling, and Soto's experience doesn't put him on the top level with Joe Warren. Joe Warren was a division 1 all-American at Michigan and a world champ at Greco-Roman. The key to the fight is whether or not Joe Soto can use his wrestling defense to keep the fight standing where he has proven to be technically sound and has KO power.
Time is on Soto's side in this fight for a couple of reasons. First off, Warren has never been in a 5 round fight before. His gas has been terrific thus far, but fatigue may make eat away at the wrestling advantage he possesses in the later rounds. As his takedown slows, Soto might find more and more success in keeping the fight standing, and that's bad news for Warren. Also, long fights favor finishers. Warren needs to get to the final bell in this fight in order to win, while Soto has finished 8 of 9 opponents. He has the fists to put Warren away if Warren's guard drops for a second, a more likely scenario in a five-round affair. Just ask Chael Sonnen how it feels to be a strong wrestler with 4 rounds in the bank and let your guard down against a dangerous fighter.
On the flip side, Joe Warren is the best fighter that Soto has ever faced. He's a fantastic wrestler who knows how to stick to the script. He's also been fighting at a high level for his ENTIRE career and knows how to win big fights. He loves the spotlight and seems to perform at his best when the most is on the line.
It's hard to make a prediction in this fight, but NO ONE who saw his performance against Pitbull can doubt the ability of Joe Warren to pull out a fight. In order to win this fight Joe Soto is going to have to reach just as deep. I think I'll wait till the interviews are done to make my prediction, so stay tuned...
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