They have both looked very solid in the Bellator tournament. Curran knocked down, then submitted, hard hitting Peruvian Luis Palomino (with a Peruvian Necktie, coincidence?) and then won a methodical decision over Ronnie Mann. Sandro won by decision twice over two VERY tough Brazilians: Genair DaSilva and Nazareno Malegarie.
The key to this fight lies in the stylistic differences between the two fighters.
Before the Mann/Curran fight, a lot of people I talked to were excited about it and expected a war between two outstanding strikers, I was not one of them. One thing about Pat Curran is that the guy doesn't brawl. He is a very tight striker who is VERY averse to taking risks. People always remember his knockout of Mike Ricci and his aforementioned submission over Luis Palomino, but those victories are the exception to the rule. Curran got to where he is by staying safe and winning close (even controversial) decisions. Against Mann, Curran used his considerable size advantage to claim the center of the cage and keep the explosive Mann on the outside looking for a way in, he never found it and lost a clear decision.
Mann is a tight striker as well who throws crisp, accurate combinations. He didn't have the skill set, or the size, to bully his way into the proper range to get his offense going. Marlon Sandro is a completely different kind of fighter.
Against both DaSilva and Malegarie, Sandro was a volume puncher. He, like Curran, prefers tight punches, but tends to let his hands go with less regard for the consequences. He is a Nova Uniao black belt with outstanding submission skills, but against his fellow Brazilians he took the path of least resistance and chose to turn it into boxing match.
One problem with Curran's style in this fight is his decided lack of urgency, even in close fights. In his decision wins over Huerta and Imada the fights were anything but secure in the last rounds, and yet Curran stuck to his "stay tight and see" game-plan, luckily for him the coin landed in his favor both times. Against Eddie Alvarez he never really went into an offensive mode, despite being behind throughout the entire fight.
The advantages of Curran and Sandro cancel each other out to some degree. Curran is the better wrestler, while Sandro has the better Jiu-Jitsu. In keeping with his conservative nature, Curran tends to use his wrestling defensively to keep the fight on the feet. Eddie Alvarez, Roger Huerta, and Tody Imada all had trouble taking Curran down, and when they did, they had little success keeping him there. Sandro isn't known for his wrestling ability and will have a hard time getting Curran to the mat if the stand-up isn't going his way. Curran, however, is equally unlikely to take Sandro down and risk a ground battle with the submission master.
I think this fight will be decided by the action on the feet. The question will be whether or not Sandro can stay busy and outwork Curran without opening himself up to a knockout blow. Sandro moves forward well and tends to throw punches right down the pipe, the kind of punches that don't leave a lot of room to counter. Curran angles well and keeps his hand very high, but is often too comfortable moving backward and giving away valuable rounds.
The first round of this fight is going to be crucial, as this is the kind of fight where you don't want to fall behind. As I stated before, Curran has a tight defense and generally limits his offense to looking for a big shot finish. He is hard to gain ground on if you fall behind to him, but he doesn't necessarily pick it up when HE falls behind. Whoever gets out ahead early is in good shape, as both of these fighters are very difficult to finish. Curran might want to use his take-down offensively at the end of rounds to in order to steal them, without giving the BJJ black belt enough time to get his submission game going, a strategy that worked VERY well for Michael Chandler against a similar opponent: Patricky Freire.
Will Sandro be able to put pressure on without succumbing to the lethal overhand of Curran? Will Curran turn it up when he has to earn himself another shot at a Bellator title?
Those are the two questions that will decide this title fight. No matter what happens the champ, whoever it is, had better be training.
