The weight-cutting dilemma

Well, the scale turns out to to be the strongest of opponents once again.

Both Bellator and the UFC were bitten by the same bug last month: Khabib Nurmagomedov had to be hospitalized before his weigh-in and the much-anticipated showdown with Tony Ferguson vanished into thin air while THREE main-card fighters failed to make weight on our Bellator show in Oklahoma. While Brandon Girtz bravely carried on against the overweight Fernando Gonzalez (and paid the price), Steve Garcia and Kendall Grove both opted not to fight their opponents and the card had to be pulled together at the last minute.

Situations like these tend to bring opinions of the experts and the "Monday morning quarterbacks" about the hazards of weight cutting and the solutions that can fix them. Read some interesting rants and some reasonable thoughts the following week, but there are fundamental issues with any actual plan to combat the problems weight-cutting presents.

I've been following this sport since the late 90's and been competing in it since about 2000. Occasionally I get asked what has changed the most in terms of actual training and fighting. One of my most consistent answers is: weight cutting. I first saw Diego Sanchez when he fought Jorge Santiago at KOTC 37 in 2004. They were fighting at middleweight and they were not small middleweights at the time. If you had told me that Diego would one day fight Ricardo Lamas at 145lbs I would have thought you were insane. For a 185lb man, 40 pounds is over 21% of his body weight. That is a STUNNING loss for any person, let alone an athlete who is demanding a lot of their bodies.

Most fighters I started with fought in weight classes where they would be midgets today. I am 5'10 and was a fairly solid welterweight ten years ago, today I'm a good (not gigantic) lightweight. As the sport became more competitive in the mid-2000's, weight cutting techniques that were the domain of a few select wrestlers who had spent years mastering them became industry standard. Dietitians and nutritionists became a necessity for any big team and the science of cutting became a matter of desperate importance to any fighter looking to make a career.

Technique beats size, but technique AND size beats technique all by itself.

That was another consequence of the sport becoming more competitive: there were no more technical secrets. As teams got bigger and training methods disseminated, the technical advantages that gave smaller fighters an edge began to disappear. The days of Dan Severn getting caught in a triangle choke that he had never even heard of were going the way of the dodo. Every team had great BJJ training, every team had top-level muay thai, and every team had an all-American teaching wrestling. When everyone knows everything, the physical advantage of cutting more weight and being the bigger guy on fight night might be the crucial difference.

Fighters moving around the scale in boxing has been a fixture of the sport for its entire existence. The major differences between boxing and MMA are that:

1. There are fewer weight classes in MMA, and therefore more of a difference between them.
2. The grappling factor that is inherent in MMA makes the weight itself a much bigger factor.

Ask any competitive grappler and he will tell you: the difference between rolling with a guy who is 150 versus a guy who is 170 is incredibly significant. Weight changes at the world level in wrestling are comparatively rare. Buvasair Saitiev is widely considered the greatest freestyle wrestler of all time. He won his 3 olympic gold medals and 6 world championships all in the same weight class, an incredible span of 12 years.

When I met Sergio Martinez before his middleweight showdown with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., I couldn't believe how small he was. Chavez TOWERED over him when they faced off, but when it came to the fight it didn't matter. In a sport where grabbing and holding illegal: speed kills and Martinez was the faster and more accurate fighter. In the fight he dominated the bigger Chavez for 11 rounds. Roy Jones Jr. won his first world title at 160, then went on to beat John Ruiz for a heavyweight belt, a virtual impossibility in MMA.

I worked with an actor (yeah, park cars in LA and you'll work with a LOT of actors) who was Italian, he had dark skin and wavy hair. He told me that he thought the fact that his ethnicity was somewhat vague would help him get roles playing a wide variety of characters. He soon learned that he looked kind of Latino, except when he was in a room full of Latinos auditioning for the same part. The same went for Middle-Eastern or Mediterranean: people who are BORN into a culture or ethnicity look way different than someone who is "kind of" pretending to be in it for a day. You often can't see that until you are face-to-face unfortunately.

The same principle applies to weight classes.

Benson Henderson is a big lightweight. He has always had a tough cut and he seemed at first glance like the kind of fighter who might benefit from a move up. When he came to Bellator he jumped right in against welterweight champ Andrey Koreshkov. In the press leading up to the fight, a lot of people were giving Ben a good shot of walking out with the belt. At the weigh-ins it looked like a man staring down a kid. Koreshkov, a natural welterweight, was gigantic after his cut and manhandled Ben for 25 minutes when they fought. Ben had fought at 170, but never against elite competition. That difference in level can't be overestimated.

In the UFC only 3 champions won a title after competing in a smaller weight-class for the promotion: BJ Penn, Randy Couture, and Connor McGregor. Of those 3, only Randy Couture ever defended his title, and even then it was only once (as of this writing Conor has yet to defend his lightweight belt). The fighters who have had the most sustained success in MMA tend to be comfortably sized for their weight class and couldn't drop even if they had to. The general rule of thumb is: if you can safely make a lower weight class, then you shouldn't be fighting at the one you are in.

When a fighter moves in weight to find success in MMA it is almost always DOWN the scale, and there is usually a beating that prompts it. Randy Couture moved down from heavyweight after being mauled by much bigger fighters in Josh Barnett and Ricco Rodriguez. Diego Sanchez began his stint at lightweight after being out-wrestled by Josh Koscheck and John Fitch. Kenny Florian moved to 145 after Gray Maynard rag-dolled him at lightweight. The list goes on and on. Fighters are nothing if not competitive. Once they feel that changing weight classes might give them a competitive edge, they almost always do it. No one wants to get out-muscled twice.

The simple truth is that 10-15 pounds is an almost insurmountable hurdle at the elite level in MMA. BJ Penn was the king of the lightweights in his prime, but was 2-7-1 at welter in the UFC with both of those wins coming against Matt Hughes. Robbie Lawler is a monster at 170, but was a so-so fighter at 185, compiling a record of 11-7-1. A dominant fighter at a given weight class often becomes an also-ran at the weight class above. There are a couple of exceptions (Rumble Johnson among them) but the rule still holds.

So we understand WHY MMA fighters make drastic weight-cuts: for the most part it works in their favor. It's when it doesn't work on the promotional level, as it didn't work out for the UFC and Bellator last month, that everyone freaks out. The problem is that none of the solutions are particularly effective, let's look at a few:

1. Modification to the existing classes

This happens every so many years in wrestling. Quite a few years back a wrestler (I believe it was at the University of Michigan) died of kidney failure while cutting weight. They immediately gave wrestlers an additional allowance to their weight limits to give them some breathing room. The issue became, and will always become, one of simple math and risk/reward analysis. If the weight classes are 170 and 160 for example and you give them a 3 pound allowance, a fighter who is light for 170 might be tempted to make that extra drop to 160 now that he has a 3-pound cushion. A modification of weight classes doesn't really do anything if the motivation to risk and cut remain the same.

2. Same day weigh-ins

This has been bantered around a lot in MMA. The issue is that it takes a process that is already risky and attempts to limit the risk by making it more risky, make sense? Its a double-down strategy (much like banning IVs) in that it makes the recovery time shorter with the idea that fighters won't want to drain themselves too badly and will cut more safely. The fundamental flaw is two-fold: the first (which I will go into more later) is that fighters are ALREADY risk takers. The idea that commissions will essentially DARE them to push their limits will be met with most fighter obliging and almost killing themselves to make weight and fight on the same day. The second flaw is that in most cases the fights will suffer and promotions therefore have little incentive to get behind the idea. Koreshkov fought Douglas Lima in a rematch last year. They gave a great fight and Lima walked out with a KO win. Both guys are giants (especially Lima) and I find it hard to believe either one of them would have had the energy to go past the first round without the proper time to re-hydrate. Watching two exhausted guys stagger around the cage is TV death and that would happen a LOT if fighters were required to weigh in the same day as their fights.

3. Adding weight classes

Some have advocated adding weight classes, therefore encouraging fighters to cut less because they have a belt to fight for that is closer to their natural weight. The issue with adding weight classes is that MMA promotions already have enough trouble building stars with the number of weight classes that already exist. Adding weight classes and then finding a champion and a pool of fighters to challenge him/her would be an unbelievably daunting task. The UFC already gets flack for the number of interim titles they hand out, imagine that with 3 or 4 more weight classes added to the field: you could get a belt at Target and fans would lose patience with the diluted talent pools.

4. Putting pressure on teams to "keep fighters in line"

Nobody likes coaching a fighter who doesn't make weight. The fighter looks bad, the team looks bad, and it costs everyone money. The problem is that, as much as MMA is becoming dominated by big teams (AKA, ATT, Jackson-Wink etc.), weight cutting is generally a matter of individual discipline. A coach knows when a particular fighter is or is not training, but they don't know when or how much they are eating. They also don't know exactly WHAT a fighter is eating, or whether they are doing those extra weight-cutting runs that are necessary for the ones who have trouble. I've seen fighters kicked out of gyms for not making weight and not being disciplined, but there is a little a coach can do to encourage a fighter to make weight other than stand next to him on the scale and deal with the angry stare of the promoters as they don't make it. This isn't the NFL. There are no such things as team fines and fighters are under no obligation to stay with a particular team. A fighter who is berated for missing weight will often just leave for greener and less-strict pastures, but it doesn't help anyone at fight-time.

5. Some medical test leading up weigh-is to determine whether a fighter's cut is safe

I hear this one a lot. It's kind of the MMA version of an old man screaming "someone should do something about this" at a pothole in the middle of the street. Who would administer these tests and what exactly would they be? Would an outside agency be in charge of it (expensive) or the promotion (improper)? When would they be done? What would the consequences be? There is no hard and fast rule for what kind of body type will or will not make weight. Douglas Lima is probably the biggest welterweight I have ever seen and is SHREDDED, yet he has always made it. Fernando Gonzalez looks like a thick lightweight and has failed on the scale multiple times. The "just look at him" argument falls flat when you look at the actual numbers. Weight cutting is also a matter of long-term discipline combined with last minute suffering. A fighter in the middle of camp might be well-overweight and still make it because they have the timing mastered, others are only a few over the night before and fail to shed the crucial pounds. I've seen very little rhyme or reason to who does or does not make it, I only know the the ones who DON'T make it rarely right the ship and tend to be dogged by weight issues their entire careers.

The undeniable truth is that weight cutting is an inherently dangerous part of an inherently dangerous sport. The nature of MMA and the athletes that compete in it is one of "big risk=big reward". To ask people who willingly get punched in the face for money to NOT take a physical risk that will give them a demonstrable advantage is an exercise in futility. I hate it when weight cutting issues cause a card to fall apart at the last minute, its a headache for the promotion as well as the fans. Hopefully a solution in presented in the near future but so far it looks like an arms race, and those tend to go on for a LONG time.








 




 

Fix(in) Bellator

I had someone tweet me after the “fix” talk started post Tito/Sonnen that I should say something to silence the critics. I immediately wrote back that I doubted my word would mean anything. The great part about conspiracy theories is that they can be expanded or contracted at the discretion of the believer. If I spoke out against a fix, then it could stand to reason I was in on it and my word wouldn't prove anything. 

My tendency is to lay out my personal logic in these instances and see if THAT has any effect on people’s opinions. I am not a naturally trusting person. As a result I require logical arguments when someone is trying to influence my opinion (makes me an anomaly these days). AllI can I can do is explain how I see it, no more and no less.

I’ve written something like this before. It was after the Kimbo/Ken fight when there was another accusation of impropriety. It’s on the MMA Community Forum somewhere if you want to look for it. I explain there the consequences for a promotion that is caught fixing a fight. I won’t go into great detail here other than to say it would be DISASTROUS. Not “our main guy getting his ass kicked” disastrous, rather “the FBI raids your offices and subpoena all of your employees” disastrous. Fixing a fight is a crime (fraud technically), and any promotion that engages in that is risking its promotional future as well as jail time for its guilty executives. 

The nature of MMA makes a fix, from the promotional side, a fairly ludicrous idea. There are few checks on a promotions authority when it comes to matchmaking. A fighter doesn't have to win to get a title fight. Nick Diaz lost to Carlos Condit in an interim title fight. It didn't matter at all, his next fight was GSP for the title. Nate Diaz famously chokes out Conor McGregor in a massive upset. Whats his next fight? A rematch that Conor wins. Will we see a third? Maybe: its all up to Dana and no one else. 

It isn't a UFC phenomenon either. Ken Shamrock gets KO’d in the first round against Kimbo Slice and yet still headlines what is (so far) the biggest show in Bellator history against Royce Gracie in his very next fight. In the Bjorn years Roger Huerta gets a fight against Eddie Alvarez despite not winning a Bellator tournament and coming off a loss to Pat Curran. Fixes would have made all of those fights easier to justify, but they weren't necessary. There is only one promoter and one matchmaker for each promotion. If they want a fight made it doesn't matter what happened before, they do what they want. 

In this particular case it’s almost impossible to find a motivation for Bellator to fix this fight in the manner in which it played out. Tito was retiring, that was a done deal for months. Bellator had actually gotten decent milage out of Tito: 3 fights (including a title fight) and excellent ratings. Chael was a recent and highly touted signing. They got a ton of mainstream press from Chael and the guy is promotional gold. There is virtually NO advantage to fixing a fight on behalf of a fighter who will NEVER fight for you again. Chael was the guy who had (and does have) a future in Bellator. He signed a multi-fight deal with Bellator and having him start off wth a loss was not a good thing for the long-term health of that deal. A fix that involved the retiring guy losing to the guy who can stick around and make money for Bellator makes a LOT more sense.  

“But”, the critics say, “what about the big sendoff for Tito at the end? The screens and the speech, that TV gold moment that producers live for? Isn't that worth a few backstage deals?” 

That’s pretty easy: the sendoff was going to happen either way. The screens were (obviously) pre-programmed and the plan, win or lose, was that Tito would do his final walk up the ramp and that we would have the credits rollout over his exit. The only x-factor was gone over at the production meeting the day day before: how would we handle the exit if Tito lost? The plan was that I would interview Chael who would (please God please) say something gracious about Tito now that the fight was over, then interview Tito so he could give his sendoff to the fans before walking into the video sunset. Would it have been as uplifting? Certainly not. Were there a zillion more variables with a Chael win considering the toxic press conference? Absolutely, but the sendoff would have been as good as we could have managed under the circumstances.  Fixing a fight in order to get a good 5 minutes of TV is akin to robbing a bank because you're behind on your cable bill: the reward doesn't exactly match the risk.  

So bearing in mind the facts that:

1. a fix is an UNBELIEVABLE risk for Bellator
2. a fix is completely unnecessary from a matchmaking point of view
3. a fix engineered by the promotion would have favored the OTHER guy

I think its safe to say that Bellator didn't have anything to do with influencing the outcome of the Tito/Chael fight. 

So the only other option is that the fighters themselves conspired to fix the fight for their own reasons. My immediate response to this is an emphatic: why the hell would they do that?

The consequences for the offending fighters (should they be caught) are similar to the ones faced by a promotion that fixes a fight: they are liable for fraud and might do time in addition to having their legacies ruined. Such an act must have a comparable reward in order to justify it and, just like with Bellator, finding a suitable reward is pretty hard.

The only two reasonable motives a fighter would have to fix a fight would be to:

1. ensure winning a fight that would be otherwise un-winnable.
2. a massive payout by betting on oneself if the loser is the heavy favorite. 

Think what you want about the fact that these two guys met in the twilight of their careers, but the truth of the matter is that it was a winnable fight for either guy. The conventional wisdom was that Chael had slightly better technique, but Tito was the bigger and physically stronger fighter who had also been more active recently. The odds favored Chael, but the last line I read was 2/1. Two to one is hardly “retire on a Caribbean island by putting money on yourself” kind of odds.  

Tommy Toe Hold (if i can call a cartoon character an actual person) already tweeted a mock conversation between Chael and Tito about fixing the fight. As funny as it is, it DOES point out the absurdity of these two guys coming together to fix a fight considering the unbridgeable gap between their personalities. 

Part of the reason the “fix” talk seems plausible to some is the attitude portrayed publicly by Chael Sonnen. He has been involved in shady practices including money laundering and failed drug tests. In true “American Gangster” fashion, Chael revels in his misdeeds rather than repenting. He went so far as to say he was “mostly clean” leading to to his fight with Tito and that he was only convicted of the criminal acts they “caught him doing”. Most fight fans would wager that if there WAS a fix in an MMA fight, it would probably involve Chael Sonnen. One thing to know about Chael is that the “Chael P. Sonnen” act drops pretty quickly when you are with the guy outside of the camera’s eye. He jokes about PEDs, but signed a contract that costs him 500k if he gets caught using them. He is loud but not stupid and a fix would destroy any hope he would EVER have of finishing his MMA career in the black. 

Another definite roadblock to a fix would be convincing a guy like Tito Oritz to go along with it. Chael often says the things he says with a wry smile that indicates that even HE doesn't really believe them. To him its all theater: it sells tickets and gets eyeballs on him where they belong. Tito, love or hate him, doesn't feel the way. I started my MMA career at Team Punishment 16 years ago and can say with absolute certainty that he is a genuinely emotional dude. 

When we were filming the “Face-Off” show between him and Stephan Bonnar things almost got out of hand several times. Once during the shoot I was listening to Bonnar berate Tito while they were sitting across from one another at a table with me. I thought I left my phone on vibrate and looked down to see that the table was vibrating. Tito was staring at Bonnar and literally shaking with anger. I could hear his teeth grinding as Bonnar was talking. Bear in mind that the cameras were on Bonnar at the time, this wasn't a posturing moment: Tito was genuinely enraged. There were a few moments like that when Tito had to be calmed down in order for the filming to continue. It made for great TV, but Tito’s never been a “turn my anger off when the cameras aren’t running” type of guy.  

I wonder at what point Chael would have approached Tito about this supposed work? I presume it would have been before he called out the mother of Tito’s kids for giving head for a living. This comment only happened a day before the fight. The idea that Chael would then ALLOW Tito get full-mount on him and assume that their handshake deal to finish the fight by (bad) rear naked choke would still hold up and Tito wouldn’t punch a hole through his face is patently ridiculous. The idea that he would approach him AFTER and not expect Tito to laugh in his face or blast him is equally ridiculous.

So lets go over the nuts and bolts of the fight itself. A lot has been made of the supposed tap by Tito early in the fight. I must admit I missed it when it was live, but re-watching it I understood why: Tito isn't in a submission. Chael is clearly hunting for a d’arce choke and can’t get his arm deep enough to make it work. He cranks down to try to get Tito’s head low enough to get the choke, tries the d’arce, then goes back to the crank when he can’t get it. The moment of this supposed tap is AFTER the d’arce attempt: Tito isn't in a submission at all. Its been pointed out as evidence of a fix that Chael moves as soon as Tito “taps”. The truth is that that’s a transitional position. Chael cant crank forever in that position and the d’arce didn't work. His next submission step is to either try to take Tito’s back or transition to another front choke. He chose the latter and went for a guillotine. We all saw how that worked out. 

As Tommy Toe Hold hilariously pointed out: the idea that Tito and Chael's “super-secret-code” for letting go of a submission is to TAP is insane. That people who follow the sport could think that two MMA veterans couldn't think of a better way to secretly communicate than to do THE ONE THING THAT COULD STOP THE FIGHT boggles my mind. Jesus, Tito’s right arm is UNDER his own body and holding onto Chael’s arm!!  He could have easily tapped Chael in secret if he wanted to, yet he chooses to subtly tap him in the open where everyone can see him?!? You seriously need a tinfoil hat to believe that one. 

The final choke has been derided as well. As I pointed out during the broadcast: it was early in the fight and therefore both guys were dry with full gas tanks. I’ve trained with Tito and have had the unfortunate experience of being under that guy. I’m telling you he is STRONG, I mean REALLY strong. The choke he finished on Chael was probably 20% technique and 80% pure strength. Every BJJ guy has tapped to a choke like that from a bigger guy and felt like a complete idiot. It wasn’t under the chin, but the pressure on the jaw and neck was enough. It wasn’t pretty for sure, but therein lies the dilemma. If the fight was a prearranged work, why finish with a bad submission? 

Assuming you could script it any way you wanted to: why choose a method that would raise so many questions? It wouldn't have been any extra effort for Chael to let Tito’s arm get under his neck and get a better looking choke. He could have even passed out (or pretended to) to add that extra gravitas (I went out on my shield guys) and silence any doubters. Instead he tapped to a half-crank, half-choke and has to work very hard to convince the fans that he has another great fight left in him. 

I think that’s part of the major question that is impossible for the conspiracy believers to answer: why would Chael Sonnen agree to a work that he gets absolutely nothing out of? The simple truth is that not only did he not win, he lost convincingly and quickly. He didn't have a long, difficult fight that might raise his stock in the eyes of the fans: he had exactly the opposite. I find it difficult to believe he would arrange something like that just to do his boy Tito a solid and send him off with a win out of the goodness of his heart. A true work would have involved him at least looking good (if not dominant, because hey, he’s agreeing to lose right?) before succumbing to the pre-arraigned submission.   

The general logic espoused by the fix believers is that (much like the Kimbo/Ken fight) the whole thing “looked suspicious”. By that rational I can think of about 5 other fights involving Chael Sonnen that looked like works and never received a single accusation. People seem to forget that Chael has a long history of dominating a fight, then losing by submission due to a mental lapse. His first fight with Anderson Silva is the most famous example, but he had a similar meltdown against Paulo Filho and slipped up against Jeremy Horn and Babalu Sobral as well. The first fight with Silva was exactly how a work SHOULD go: Chael completely dominates Silva for 4 1/2 rounds then taps out to a submission just when it seemed that victory was inevitable. Remember that Chael tapped remarkably quickly for someone who had just put in 23 brutal minutes, it even looked for a moment like it may have been a controversial stoppage. The result: Chael’s stock goes up for making an MMA god look human, Silva keeps the title and gains fans for a gritty come-from-behind performance (many of whom left after his previous two BIZARRE performances), and finally it sets up a mega-payday rematch that Cheal was more than happy to hype. In short: everyone gained something and got paid, something you can’t find in the Tito/Chael scenario. 

I am in NO way saying Silva/Sonnen 1 (or the equally bizarre rematch) was a work, I’m simply pointing out that the criteria for a work seems to fluctuate wildly. Once people get the idea that there is one, it tends to take on a momentum of its own independent of the available evidence.

As @mattwfights so eloquently tweeted:

“A guy who hadn’t fought in 3 years, who gets caught easily in submissions, got caught easily in a submission. Not shocking"  

I actually read a tweet after Kimbo/Ken that read (I’m paraphrasing from memory):

“For people who don't think Kimbo/Ken was fixed: remember that Ken actually submitted Bas Rutten by rear naked choke!! Let that sink in for a second!!”

I was drinking tea when I read that and laughed so hard that I almost gave myself third degree burns. Yes Twitter guy: Ken Shamrock DID submit Bas Rutten via RNC. I won’t point out that it was virtually the same crappy rear naked he almost got Kimbo in, or that Bas wasn’t exactly a submission specialist. What I WILL point out is that the aforementioned submission happened in 1994!! Thats right: the submission this guy used to justify his fix theory in 2015 was a fight that happened 21 YEARS EARLIER!! What athlete in ANY sport is expected to perform in a similar manner to the way they performed when they were 21 years younger?!?! 

That might be the unspoken reason for these theories that seem to defy logic: the fighters that are involved are past their competitive primes. We remember the fighter that they USED to be and seeing the fighter they are now doesn’t quite match up with the image we have in our heads, therefore something must be fishy. Maybe Tito gets a much better choke ten years ago or maybe Chael slips out of the bad choke if he's a decade younger, and maybe a 1994 Ken Shamrock DOES finish Kimbo Slice before his arms gas out. The truth is that we will never know because they didn't fight ten years ago, they fought in the autumn of their careers where maybe the finishes aren't as clean, or as sharp, or as satisfying.  

Like the great Umberto Eco once wrote:

“The Rosicrucians were everywhere, aided by the fact that they didn’t exist.”

Ideas, good and bad, will go on as long as someone believes in them. In the digital age where every idea can find a thousand megaphones, I don't expect the conspiracy theorists to stop conspiring (ironic when you think about it). All I can do is lay things out the way I see them when I’m stuck in hotel rooms rooms waiting to call a fight for your enjoyment. 

As always, feedback is encouraged. 

Breakdown: Henderson vs Chandler

Michael Chandler vs Benson Henderson: Lightweight Bellator World Championship

SAP Center in San Jose, Nov 19 2016 

Well, we've been waiting for this one for a long time. Not many fights have been talked about since the "Bjorn Era" and this is one of them. Chandler and Henderson were champions of rival promotions at the same time (Chandler in Bellator and Henderson in the UFC) and them coming together to see who was REALLY the greatest lightweight in the world was a dream matchup. Both fighters have been through their ups and downs since the early days of 2012, but they are finally squaring off in the Bellator cage with the title on the line this Saturday.

If you could combine Michael Chandler and Benson Henderson you would get the perfect lightweight. One one fighter lacks, the other one has in spades. That's part of what makes this fight so intriguing to begin with.

Everyone knows Benson Henderson's style. In 14 UFC appearances he went to a decision 10 times.  The level of competition during his UFC/WEC run was murderous: he fought Frankie Edgar (twice), Donald Cerrone (three times), Anthony Pettis (twice), RDA, Josh Thompson, Nate Diaz, and Gilbert Melendez. Considering he holds a losing record only to Pettis and RDA, that's one hell of a lightweight run.

He is versatile, athletic, and has a unique combination of "embrace the grind" wrestling and unorthodox striking attacks. He's just as likely to mash an opponent against the fence as he is to throw a spinning back-kick, and that's not something many fighters do. The knock on him is that he rarely goes out of his way to finish a fighter, and when he does it is usually the result of a positional mistake that allows a front choke or RNC. In fact his 10 submission wins are ALL front chokes or RNCs. He outworks fighters and beats them in the later rounds with his perseverance and endurance. The good news is the you'll probably see the final bell with Bendo, the bad news is that you probably won't win.

Michael Chandler is perhaps Ben Henderson's polar opposite. Of Iron Mike's 15 wins, only 2 have been by decision and the last one was more than 5 years ago. He has D-1 All-American wrestling credentials but has grown into a devastating striker. Patricky Pitbull, Dave Rickles, and Akihiro Gono have all been leveled by his explosive punches in the opening round. Eddie Alvarez, Rick Hawn, Derek Campos, and Marcin Held can all attest to his submission ability as well. It isn't pretty, but if you are in trouble on the ground and give Chandler positional dominance he (like Henderson) will choke your lights out.

Chandler's kryptonite has been his inability to pace himself in long fights. He has never won a decision in a 5-round fight and 2 of his 3 losses were decided by the judges. Chandler relies on his explosiveness and aggression, two qualities that tend to suffer as a tough fight wears on. At his best he is a whirlwind of destruction, at his worst he is an easy target who walks into punches looking for a kill shot. In his epic fights with Eddie Alvarez he had difficulty sustaining his offense from round to round. One round he would look dominant, the next he would look like the walking dead as he moved around trying to recharge his depleted batteries. He was tough enough to see the final bell in his close decision losses to Will Brooks and Eddie Alvarez, but his fatigue in later rounds caught up to him both times. He also has glaring defensive issues: he loves coming forward but hardly ever moves his head or parries punches and he rarely cuts angles.

The X-factor here is the timing of the matchup. Henderson was a blue-chip free agent this year when he signed with Bellator, but he hasn't looked good in his new home. Partly it was his reach exceeding his grasp. His first fight was against then 170 champ Andre Koreshkov. Henderson pulled every trick he could in that fight, but it was never competitive. Andre tee'd off on Ben for 5 rounds and did everything but stop him.

His next fight was against former 145 kingpin Patricio Pitbull and the outcome bizarre to say the least. Most people chalked up Ben's loss in his Bellator debut to the fact that he was fighting a larger, rangier fighter with real power. Against a puffed-up featherweight who only stood 5'6", most fans thought that Ben would play the outside and be far too active for the power-punching style of Pitbull. In a bizarre role-reversal, it was Ben pressuring throughout the fight as Pitbull played the outside and tried to land single punches. Although he pressed forward the entire time, Ben was surprisingly inactive and offered little meaningful offense against a fighter who was naturally much smaller. The Ben Henderson who threw everything he could against a gigantic welterweight seemed tentative against a short featherweight. I gave Pitbull the first round and during the 2nd he suffered an injury when Henderson checked one of his kicks. Ben got the win he needed, but the fans were not pleased with his performance and boos rained down during his post-fight interview.

Michael Chandler is coming into this fight riding a streak that has marked the rebirth of his MMA career.  After 2 losses to Will Brooks (one by stoppage), some were questioning whether Iron Mike had seen his best days in the sport and would be relegated to gate-keeper status. After blasting Derek Campos and Caveman Rickels, Chandler got a shot at the vacant lightweight title against Patricky Pitbull and made the most of it with highlight-reel KO in the opening round. As far as momentum goes it is clear that Chandler is regaining his stride while Henderson has yet to truly find his footing.

This is a legacy fight. Henderson has made a career out of defeating the top names in the sport and if he adds the Bellator title to his list of accomplishments it's hard to keep him out of the discussion when talking about the greatest lightweights of all time. Michael Chandler has been a crowd-pleaser from day one, but hasn't hasn't defeated the NAMES necessary to take his place among the division's elite in the eyes of most fans. A dominant win is necessary for both fighters to silence the critics and nothing can be more motivating than that.

Breakdowns: Liam McGeary vs Phil Davis

Going to be a busy few months. People always ask me what I do with my time off between Bellator and PBC shows. The truth is that I generally train BJJ and write. To actually get my technique back for a few weeks is a great feeling, but it always gives way to another stretch on the road. Some serious title fights are on the horizon, so I might as well get some thoughts on paper while I can.

Phil Davis vs Liam McGeary

Mohegan Sun 11-04, Light-Heavyweight Belt on the line.

Well, this one has been a long time coming. Phil jumped right into Bellator and was faced with a one-night four-man tournament for the right to face Liam for his 205 belt. Davis looked great that night and easily dispatched Emmanuel Newton and Francis Carmont on his way to the tournament title. It wasn't just the opponents and the dominance, it was the versatility as well. He submitted the former champ who had shown great submission defense against McGeary, then he got his first KO since 2009.

The fact that King Mo was supposed to meet Davis in the finals led to them having a showdown in San Jose the following spring. Davis dominated the third round in a very close fight to earn his title shot. When it comes to 205 in Bellator, its clear that Davis is the #1 contender and the "UFC free agent vs established Bellator champ" match that so many have wondered about will finally happen.

Liam McGeary has been nothing less than a British wrecking-ball in Bellator. He has gone 8-0 in our cage and 11-0 overall with 10 finishes. Another impressive stat is that he has 5 wins via sub, and 5 by KO. The guy has shown that he can win anywhere and in impressive fashion. Not only does he have impressive submission skills, but his build allows him to strike from just about anywhere. He has TWO inverted triangle submissions: one against Kelly Anundson and another against Tito Ortiz.

The key to this fight has been Liam's tendency in recent fights to accept takedowns in order to work from his back. In the Tito Ortiz and Kelly Anundson fights he was taken down with no difficulty at all but was able to capitalize early with quick submissions. Against Emmanuel Newton his tendency to rely on his submission skills nearly cost him as he was unable to submit Newton and the judges awarded him a win that could have gone either way.

In interviews leading up to this fight Liam has expressed unwavering confidence in his BJJ game. He has also framed the contest as a "BJJ vs Wrestling" type of fight. The first problem with that analysis is that Phil has exceptional BJJ skills in his own right. I know from painful experience (Click here to see Rolling With Jimmy) that Phil is excellent at putting pressure on his opponents and has a fantastic kimura. Phil was able to finish Emmanuel Newton in the first round, an opponent Liam couldn't catch in 25 minutes.

The second problem is that the judging criteria in MMA is a bit uncertain when it comes to an aggressive guard vs moderate ground and pound. Many of the rounds in Liam's fight vs Newton could have gone either way, depending on whether you preferred the GnP of Newton or the submission attacks of McGeary. The last thing Liam wants is to let his title slip away because judges generally go for the fighter on top.

Against King Mo, Phil Davis was content to test his boxing out for the first 2 rounds and only went to his takedown when he had Mo hurt in the 3rd stanza. The reason for that is simple: Mo is one hell of a wrestler. Davis wasn't about to lose all of his precious energy fighting for a difficult takedown when he had confidence in his striking skills. Thats not a concern he faces against Liam. Liam has yet too see a takedown in Bellator that he didn't readily accept, and Phil has a HEALTHY respect for Liam's KO power. That combination should result in some early takedown attempts by Phil (I'd be surprised if it took more than a minute for the first one).

Both fighters have to keep the pressure on in their respective comfort zones. Phil Davis has never been finished in his pro career, so Liam has to be ready for 5 hard rounds of throwing volume on the feet and chaining submissions together on the ground. Phil has to respect the finishing ability of a guy who has only seen the final bell once in 11 fights, so staying in Liam's chest and working for takedown after takedown will probably be the order of the day.

Scrambling positions with be VERY interesting considering Liam's build and Davis' speed. The guy who makes a mistake getting into or out of a position might find themselves in deep trouble. If the straight "sprawl and brawl" strategy doesn't fit Liam (which it hasn't so far), he might roll for something crazy as Phil latches onto a takedown, so Phil has to be aware at all times.

Ring rust might also be a serious issue for the champ. It has been just over a year since Liam tapped out Tito in his first title defense. A knee issue has kept Liam sidelined while Phil has fought 3 times. Liam can't afford a slow start to ease his way back into competition and Phil probably wouldn't allow one anyway. Liam's timing has to be sharp from the opening against an aggressive and confident Phil Davis.

Love to know what the fans think. I'm looking forward to one hell of a fight.

Check out rolling with Jimmy below:

Growing up Gracie

I remember seeing Kron Gracie on the mat many times in the blue belt and purple belt divisions when we were competing at the same time ten or so years ago.  I remember one time in particular that stands out to this day. Kron was about 16 years old and was competing in a big tournament (I think the nationals) in the adult blue belt division. He lost on points to a guy who looked to be in his mid-20s. After the win the guy ran around the mat celebrating and jumped into his teammates arms like he just won Olympic gold. Bear in mind that Kron probably didn't have hair on his nuts at this point and had lost to a full grown man by a point or two.

I'll never forget the look of pure RAGE on Kron's face that day as he watched this guy celebrating at his expense.  That was the first time it dawned on me how hard it must be to grow up carrying the Gracie name.

During my competition days, 5 Gracies were on the mat consistently: Kron, Ralek, Riron, Rener, and Clark (I only saw Clark at big tournaments, I saw the rest all the time). They won most of the time, but not EVERY time. They took their lumps sometimes just like everyone else, and when they did it was an EVENT. People crowded around the mat. They yelled, they cheered, they gasped, they sat in stunned silence: a Gracie had just lost. Whenever one of my teammates was nervous about competing I would ask them:

"Do you know how many times Marcello Garcia lost as a blue belt?"
"Um...no"
"Neither do I. No one gives a shit about this match, get out there and have some fun."

Your first few years of competition are SUPPOSED to be anonymous. You are supposed to lose when no one gives a shit and no one is really watching. Your first MMA fights are supposed to be on an undercard when no one is in the stands with just your friends and relatives screaming for you. The Gracies don't get that luxury, everyone pays attention when they fight. When Kron took on Bill Cooper at Copa Pacifica the crowd was silent and intense, and the these were a couple of purple belts who weren't old enough to drink legally.

There is a special edge to Kron Gracie's legacy of course: he's Rickson's son.

There has always been a tendency to lump the Gracies together into a single, monolithic clan. Nothing could be further from the truth of course. That family has more branches than a 500-year-old   oak tree and more rivalries than the Mafia. In a group that large there is room for all kinds of people. Most Gracies have excellent technique due to the simple fact that its hard NOT to when you do a sport from birth and have a whole family of experts to support you, but not all of them have been outstanding competitors. When you ask old-timers about certain Gracies they will roll their eyes dismissively and say something like; "Porra! That mutherfucker never win nothing in Brazil, just have the name!" Like in any family, some were more cut out to be outstanding businessmen, instructors, promoters etc. When it comes to the competitive side, one name stands out above all others: Rickson.

Most people know the story: Rickson was the undefeated lion of the Gracie family. Either in a tournament or on the beach his skills are legend. I have heard a million stories of him wiping the floor with an entire class full of world champions. My coach on the Fight Quest BJJ episode was a Rickson disciple who told me point-blank: "I've been training for 25 years and Rickson toys with me like a child. In all this time I'm no closer to competing with him than I was when I knew nothing". That's a scary thought when you remember how long that guy has been training, but its the same thing I've heard in various academies a million times. The shame from a historical perspective is that few of Rickson's competitive matches survive to this day. He stopped competing in the 80's and, as a result, there are only a handful of grainy clips on youtube of the famous Rickson at the end of his tournament career. They are impressive to say the least, he blows most guys out before they even know what's happening. The only match of any length is his war with a young Rigan Machado, but the quality of the videos makes it difficult to see many details in their techniques. There is no video of him losing, because in BJJ he never did. His only official defeat was in a Sambo tournament when he was thrown and lost, similar to an Ippon in Judo.

Following up on a legacy like that must be a motherfucker, but it seems that Kron has the mentality to do it. Of the Gracies I saw compete, Kron has proven to be the best of that class. He has world titles in the purple and brown belt divisions and a silver at black in 2011 to go along with a host of major tournament titles. He medaled twice at ADCC (all his loses to Marcello Garcia) and tapped ALL of his opposition on his way to gold in 2013. Two things immediately stand out to someone who knows BJJ when they see Kron compete. The first thing is that his style is BASIC. He doesn't rely on fancy tricks or techniques nor does he employ a ton of guard variations and crazy attacks. He sticks to the basics and has incredible fundamentals that opponents can't keep up with. The second thing is that he is phenomenally aggressive. At ADCC in 2013 he submitted EVERYONE he fought. He hasn't just beaten world champions like Leandro Lo, Otavio Souza, and Gilbert Burns, he's submitted them in competition (although Burns DID get payback at the 2011 Worlds, beating Kron in the final). In high-level BJJ I've seen guys win world titles without submitting anyone. The submission at the professional level of the sport, with time limits etc., is comparatively rare. Kron submits the best with regularity.

Of course Kron has stepped into the professional MMA world. Last weekend he defeated Hideo Tokoro in the main event of the Rizin promotion's 2nd show in Japan. A lot of people have asked me how I think he will do in his MMA career and I always answer the same way: it depends on whether or not he makes it a career. Consistency has really been a problem for the Gracies in MMA when it comes to evaluating their competitive legacy. Royce, Renzo, Rickson, Rolles Jr., Roger, Rodrigo, Ryan, Gregor, Ralph, Royler, Daniel, Igor, Neiman, Ralek, Crosley, Roggan, Carlson Jr., Robbin, Cesar, and Rhalan have all made appearances in MMA (might be missing a couple somewhere). Their  total number of fights: 150, that makes for 7.5 fights per Gracie. Neiman Gracie has fought in the Bellator cage and has averaged about a fight a year, Kron has averaged about the same in his 3-fight career as well.

Once a year does not an MMA career make. One of the obvious issues is that most fighters start off their careers fighting fairly regularly, then taper off as the stakes and purses get bigger. Kron,  however, is fighting in main events and its his 3rd MMA fight. The dues-paying years when you have to fight every month to pay the bills don't necessarily exist when you have a famous last name. Also, every Gracie has a built-in career waiting at home. Kron has an academy here in Southern California. No matter what happens in the cage or the ring, his financial future is fairly secure as long its doors remain open. The economic reality is that the VAST majority of Gracies can make far more money running academies and giving seminars than they can from fight purses, Kron is no exception in that regard.

I was fortunate to be ringside for his fight with Asen Yamamoto. Any time a fighter taps AND goes out, its one tight choke. That kind of slickness and technique is a thing of beauty to watch. Talking to Joe Shilling about Kron he had nothing but praise for Kron's standup ability, so I believe he has the will to become well rounded and dangerous in every area. If he is willing to fight with consistency, we might see a new lion emerge in the Gracie family.

Chael P. and the free-agent thing...

Well, Bellator has made another interesting free-agent signing. This one even took ME by surprise.
Contrary to popular belief, I am not usually informed of upper-management decisions at Bellator unless I am called upon to say something about it in public (interview the fighter, shoot a video etc.). As a result I had no clue that he was signed until read about it online.

Free-agency has been a HUGE story in 2016. Phil Davis made the jump to Bellator, followed by Ben Henderson, then Rory MacDonald, and now Chael Sonnen. In terms of star-power, he has to be the biggest acquisition since Tito Ortiz and has the potential to draw a ton of eyeballs to the Bellator brand.

Free-agency is a great way to draw instant attention to a particular promotion or team, but a lot of strategic thought goes with it. Snagging a coveted free-agent in any sport can be a game changer, but one has to keep their eye on the overall prize: making the team, or promotion in this case, a more competitive unit. In this regard the Bellator signings over the past year fit well into an overall brand-building strategy. The key to that strategy is that all of the free-agent fighters fall into competitive divisions where there are options for instantly relevant fights.

Phil Davis dropped right into the mix at 205 and won a Bellator 4-man tournament in his promotional debut. He defeated King Mo and has a title fight lined up with the undefeated champ Liam McGeary. No need for any softballs or tune-ups: Davis made a huge impact in a competitive division.

Ben Henderson, Rory MacDonald, and Chael Sonnen all have expressed interest in fighting in multiple weight classes. Henderson dove right into the deep end of the pool and took on 170 kingpin Andrey Koreshkov. I admire his confidence and willingness to bang, but his reach in that case clearly exceeded his grasp and he took a one-sided beating in his Bellator debut. The upside to having aspirations in more than one division is that a loss in a move up can be forgiven fairly easily. Case in point: after a bizarre finish to his match with Pitbull, Henderson will now face Michael Chandler for his 155 strap in November. Its been a rocky road, but fans will get the matchup they wanted when both fighters held belts in rival organizations a couple years back.    

Chael Sonnen has the same which-way-will-the-knight-move kind of ability (yeah I play chess, go ahead make fun of me). He has had most of his success at 185, but has competed at light-heavy (most recently against Rashad Evans and Shogun Rua) and seems willing to make a fight at 265 for the right dollar amount. While he made reference in his Bellator TV debut to a "legends" ass-kicking tour the simple fact is that there are very few legends actively fighting in Bellator, and even fewer who would make a compelling fight for the American Gangster. Kimbo is gone, Ken Shamrock (provided he ever fights again after 2 terrible showings) would be a like throwing a steak to a wolf, Royce Gracie would be another terrible matchup, and I have heard nothing about the return of Stephan Bonnar. Wanderlei Silva (a name with a lot of history when it comes to Chael) is still serving a suspension and is scheduled to fight overseas before he makes any moves inside the Bellator cage.

The only real "legends" fight that makes any sense is Tito Ortiz. The buildup alone to a fight between two of the biggest trash-talkers in the sport would draw plenty of people in and get unprecedented mainstream coverage (please GOD no more dudes in masks in the cage, I still have nightmares about that night). It's also a fairly easy sell: Tito looked good in his last fight against Liam McGeary. He was lean and looked like he had gotten through camp injury-free. I actually had him ahead until the champ locked in the reverse triangle. If he can do another 6-8 weeks camp (no small task considering his age and history) he could give the fans one last solid performance against Chael.

Lets, for arguments sake, say that Chael's first fight is against Tito and he comes out on top. THAT'S when the real difficulties begin. Although he has been at his best at 185, he hasn't cut to middleweight in 4 years. Cutting weight gets exponentially more difficult as you get older, and dropping to 185 at 39 years old and with 3 years off is no easy task. Although he has expressed an interest in dropping to middleweight again, the physical reality of getting there might be a bit a challenge. Furthermore, there isn't a ton motivation for Chael to make a challenging cut in the first place as the big name fights are currently at 205. Middleweight is an entertaining division is Bellator, but lacks a name with mainstream star power. Rory MacDonald would be an interesting addition to the division and could make a compelling fight against Chael, but I think he will want to test out the waters at welter before making a leap in weight-class.

Assuming he stays at 205, his showdown with Tito Ortiz (a fight with its own set of challenges) is about as easy as the road gets for Chael. Waiting in the wings would be King Mo, Linton Vassel, Phil Davis, and Liam McGeary: ALL of them tough challenges who would love to put a victory over the American Gangster on their resume. If his (hypothetical) performance against Tito were sufficiently impressive, it would be hard to keep him out of a title shot against the winner of McGeary/Davis, two BIG light-heavyweights who Sonnen acknowledges as great fighters.

When it comes to Chael there is a MASSIVE elephant in the room and it involves the label that is the most tenacious in the world of MMA: doper. Everyone knows about the positive tests that led to Sonnen's suspension in 2011 and his retirement in 2014. He can make light of it as much as he likes, but its an issue that Bellator has clearly taken seriously. His contract contains a clause that if he fails a USADA test he forfeits his entire purse, plus a 500,000$ fine. There are few MMA fighter on Earth who could afford a half-million dollar fine. This is a "bankruptcy-level" fine designed to let Sonnen know that he has no wiggle-room when it comes to PEDs. Of course he knows it was in the deal he signed and he manned up, knowing he's got to be clean the rest of his foreseeable career. The problem  is that its a tough label to shake. If Chael looks any smaller, or slower, or hell, ANYTHING is different on the scale or in the cage the fans will immediately grumble that the best parts of the American Gangster came out of a syringe. Chael may claim not give a wet fart what the fans think, but the urge to compete generally comes with an urge to leave a legacy you can be proud of and the strictness of the Bellator contract will allow the MMA fans to find out what Chael P. Sonnen is really made of.

On the technical side (the side I'm most interested in), Sonnen is an interesting case to say the least. He has beaten some of the best in the world over the length of his career and has wins over the current UFC champ Michael Bisping, Nate Marquardt, Shogun Rua, and my commentating colleague Brian Stann. On the down side is a history of mental lapses in fights, especially on the ground, many in fights he was clearly winning.

Most current MMA fans remember his performances against Anderson Silva. I must have watched their first fight half a dozen times. MAN he had that fight in the BAG!! When he gave up the fight-ending triangle with 2 minutes left in the fight, he was so far ahead that Silva could have LITERALLY won the round 10-6 and Sonnen would have won majority decision. In the rematch, another he was ahead in, Sonnen's undoing was an ill-advised spinning backfist attempt after he had CRUSHED Silva with his ground and pound for 5 solid minutes.

What the younger fans might not remember are his fights with Jeremy Horn, Renato Sobral, and his first fight with Paulo Filho. In each fight he was on top working his ground and pound and fell by submission. The Sobral fight was about even, he was ahead against Horn, and he was DESTROYING Filho when the end came. Its important to keep in mind that all of these guys had incredible submission games, but it shows that the result of the Anderson Silva fights fit into a troubling overall pattern of technical lapses in competitive, and in some cases dominant, fights. Two of the biggest wins of his career, against Rua and Bisping, have come AFTER this string of late blunders, so hopefully he has addressed that area of his game and made the necessary corrections.

Sonnet's mouth may be front page news to the rest of the MMA world, but I'm intrigued to see what he can do with his fists in the new chair of his career.

The Burden Of Greatness

Sports fans, and fight fans specifically, have a love-hate relationship with greatness. We love and appreciate a dominant and technical fighter. We reward them with our adoration and pay-per-view dollars and we endlessly analyze their every career move.

What we all want to see is greatness tested. A dominant performance is one thing, it is to be appreciated and admired for sure, but seeing a great athlete having to overcome adversity is what most sports fans really live for. In that moment of determination a god becomes mortal. We fans struggle in our daily lives in a myriad of ways: in our jobs, our relationships, our quests to live elusive dreams. When we see a great athlete stumble, we see a bit of ourselves. The idea that they can overcome gives us a bit more hope that we can do the same.

When we looks back on the career of a true great, we acknowledge the dominate performances, but we WORSHIP the determination of a comeback, an upset, a come-from-behind miracle. Ali is defined by his wars with Frazier. The fact that he said after the second fight "It was like death. Closest thing to dyin' that I know of." defines his heart and courage. The upsets against Foreman and Liston, fighters NO ONE thought he could beat, were the bookends to his Cinderella story.

What lingers in the background of every discussion of a truly great fighter is the questioning of that greatness in relation to the opposition they have faced. In that regard combat sports are comparatively unique. Someone's greatness in another sport (baseball is perhaps the best example) is often defined in statistical terms. In debating the greatest pitcher of all time ERA's, strikeouts, and world series titles will all be cited. The idea of how many great teams and hitters they faced will usually not be an issue. In debating the merits of the '85 Bears as the greatest football team ever, the fact that the Patriots they faced in the Super Bowl weren't that good usually doesn't provide much of a counter argument. In combat sports the level of opposition is EVERYTHING and it is unfortunately completely subjective and relative.

Q: How good is a fighter?
A: They are as good as the opposition they have beaten.
Q: How do you define how good their opposition was?
A: By examining who THEY beat.

…and the serpent eats its own tail.

Both the MMA and boxing worlds, the two worlds in which I make my living and life, have stars who are currently mired in the kind of circular debates that fight fans love the way mushrooms love shit and darkness.

Ronda Rousey recently dispatched yet another "challenger" in under a minute and Floyd Mayweather selected Andre Berto as his "final" opponent.  Both fighters are dominant in entirely different, and in fact polar opposite, ways. Ronda has fought 12 times in her MMA career and has gone past a minute a total of three times (Sarah McMann made it by a mere 6 seconds) and only Meisha Tate took her past the first round. Her entire 6-fight UFC career has lasted just under 8 minutes. Considering the fact that she has been the only champ in the division, her dominance is unparalleled in MMA's brief history.

Floyd is a phenomenal 48-0 and has looked almost untouchable doing it. He has taken on the best boxers of his era and made them look like amateurs. He has dominated the likes of Manny Pacquiao. Shane Mosley, Canello Alvarez, and Miguel Cotto. The downside of Mayweather's victories in the eyes of most fans is that they are almost universally unsatisfying. Most casual fans are not enamored with Floyd's displays of technical brilliance: they want drama and action. Unfortunately those are two qualities that are generally lacking from Mayweather's performances. He has one knockout since coming back from a brief hiatus in 2009 and that was a controversial one against Victor Ortiz when Ortiz tried to "hug it out" after a flagrant foul (protect yourselves at all times!) and hasn't scored back-to-back finishes since 2005.  

Ronda and Floyd compete in different sports with different promotional systems. In MMA, promotions rule their stable of fighters. The UFC is the sole voice in who the next challenger for Ronda's belt is, so building up that challenger to the best of their abilities is entirely the UFC's problem. The difficulty is that the pickings are amazingly slim. Ronda's UFC opponents have averaged 1.7 UFC fights before they faced the champ, giving the promotion precious little time to build them as contenders. They did a masterful job of building hype around the Tate rematch, despite the fact that their first fight ended brutally in the first round. The promo for the Correia fight that showed a montage of Ronda's victories looked, to me, like an anti-PPV advertisement and begged the question "Why should I pay 60$ for a fight that's going to end in under a minute?" That is, of course, exactly what happened.  Having a pet shark is great, its keeping them fed that is the problem.

Mayweather competes in one of the most storied divisions in boxing history. Hall of famers like Ray Robinson, Pernell Whitaker, Tommy Hearns, and Ray Leonard have all called it home and the champ at 147 is almost always among the pound-for-pound kings. Floyd's run has had no lack of names and now that he has faced, and dismantled, Manny Pacquiao its hard to say he has ducked anyone in the division. His critics haven't pointed to his lack of opposition, but to his lack of finishing instincts. Floyd has always fallen into the "hit and not get hit" category of fighters and chooses to out-box his opponents, even when the opportunity to finish them seems to present itself.

Floyd has come to the point in his career that he can choose who he wants to fight and his choice of Andre Berto has his "final" test has raised more than a few voices of criticism. Berto was once an elite welterweight, but is 3-3 in his last six fights. I called his last fight against Josesito Lopez and although he won by KO, he was behind on the scorecards and didn't look like the Berto of old. On my personal list of possible Mayweather contenders Berto would have been behind such names as Keith Thurman, Danny Garcia, Amir Khan, Shawn Porter, and Kell Brooke. All of them have fought better talent more recently than Berto and are fresher in the minds of boxing fans old and new. That being said, I still don't believe any possible name gives Floyd much trouble at this stage in his career. He is simply too fast, too smart, and too elusive for anyone to land a serious punch against him.  

The boxing public want desperately to see Floyd have the kind of moments that Ali had against Frazier and Robinson had against Turpin and Fulmer. Can he stand being bloody, exhausted, behind on the scorecards? Can he find it in his heart to come back and dig deep for a victory that requires not just technique, but will and determination as well? It is unlikely we will ever know. The only undefeated fighter is father time, and unless Floyd allows himself to stick around the sport long enough for time to erode his skills no one will be able to tarnish his spectacular record.

Ronda decimates contenders we didn't know anything about, while Floyd picks apart the biggest names in the sport and cruises to a unanimous decision. Both results kind of leave you thinking about all the things you could have bought with that money you spent on a PPV.  

Of the two fighters, Ronda is the only one with a true challenge on the horizon. Cyborg is in a similar position to Ronda in terms of her dominance in the sport of woman's MMA. She hasn't lost since her MMA debut and has KO'd 12 out of 14 victims. Much like Rousey, she has a rare combination of speed, aggressiveness, and power.

The difficulty in making a "superfight" between Ronda and Cyborg lies in two parts. The first issue is their weight disparity. Cyborg competes 10 pounds heavier than Ronda and its a ROUGH cut. Cyborg publicized a picture of her stepping on the scale at 175 shortly after a fight, a weigh-in difference of 30 pounds. Given female physiology that is an AMAZING amount of weight. Weight is usually cut by "wringing" the moisture out of muscle tissue. Considering that women have, on average, 33% less muscle than men of comparable size the cut is usually much harder for females. Dana White has publicly stated that the champ, Ronda in this case, doesn't move up in weight: if Cyborg can't make 135, tough beans. Dana has said a lot of outlandish things, but his logic on this point is pretty solid. Ronda would be giving Cyborg a HUGE physical advantage in stepping up to 145 to take her on. Catch weights have been proposed, but nothing is yet written in stone. Considering Cyborg's difficulties with 145, anything lower is a massive promotional gamble. Huge hype would be behind a Cyborg-Ronda fight and Cyborg not making weight would be a disaster for everyone involved.

The second issue is: she might win. MMA fans tend to forget that we have been down a similar road to this one before. Gina Carano was, in many ways, Ronda before Ronda. She was a fighter with legit skills and movie-star good looks. She didn't have the finishing ability of Ronda, but was nonetheless 7-0 when she squared off with Cyborg in 2009. There is a sinking you see in the pit of most fighters' stomachs when their opponent takes their best punch and comes forward smiling, I saw that look in Gina Carano pretty early against Cyborg. Cyborg dominated the fight and stopped Gina with one second to go in the first round. Gina has yet (as of August 2015) to fight again and seems to have decided that starring in movies would be better for her overall health.

One of the results of Cyborg's destruction of Gina is that interest in woman's MMA took a nose-dive. She had three fights as Strikeforce champ and none of them were competitive. Her four fights in Invicta were equally one-sided, only Marloes Coenen took her past the 2nd round in either promotion. Dana's much publicized "Wanderlei in a dress" comments underscore the fact that she doesn't have the sex appeal of Gina or Ronda, nor is english her first language. To trade a crossover star like Ronda for the fighting machine that is Cyborg is a nightmare for the Zuffa brand.

The aforementioned weight disparity raises other questions if Cyborg should prove victorious. The first is: Could Cyborg defend the belt or make weight for a rematch? It would be a miracle for Cyborg to make 135, or even 140, for a showdown with Ronda. IF she can, and wins, what then? If the fight is competitive at ALL there will be calls for a rematch and Cyborg has to make weight again, but this time with the advantage of having already won and being able to say "At my weight or live with your loss".
The second question is what would be done with Cyborg if she can't make 135 with any consistency. There is (as of August 2015) no 145 women's class in the UFC. To have Cyborg win her megafight with Ronda, only to then fight elsewhere, makes the result a complete wash for the UFC.

The simple fact is that the UFC brass might not have many choices when it comes to Ronda's next fight. Ronda-Tate 3 is on the table but, as I have previously mentioned, the first two fights weren't particularly competitive and its unlikely a trilogy would be a stand-alone PPV draw. The Cyborg-Ronda fight would be EASILY the biggest woman's fight in MMA history and should draw huge buy numbers. The flip-side to the problems with Cyborg winning is that Ronda winning makes her an even bigger star and a loss might not be the end of the world if a catchweight is in place as there is no shame in a loss to a naturally bigger fighter.

Fans love that special moment when a the invincible look vulnerable and the gods look like they might just be humans after all.  Only time will tell if either of these seemingly superhuman fighters will be tested for our viewing pleasure. If they are, we will be able to tell our kids where we were and how we felt during an historic moment. The great thing about the majesty of sports is seeing the unexpected, that moment that you just had to be there for...